Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (18/11/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

On the first day of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, almost 200 countries agreed on new rules for global emissions trading, even though many of the framework conditions and rules still need to be worked out.

This emissions trading should enable states and companies to purchase CO2 certificates from climate protection projects and thereby offset their emissions. As with voluntary emissions trading, a certificate is generated for each tonne of CO2 or its equivalent of greenhouse gases avoided, which can then be traded and retired.

These rules have been in the works since the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, and since they were still very inadequate at last year’s COP28 in Dubai, they were rejected by the EU and developing countries.

Last Monday’s agreement has now laid the foundations for a global emissions trading market that functions according to international rules and only allows high-quality carbon credits to be used to offset unavoidable emissions, or emissions that cannot be avoided at a disproportionate cost.

Prices for European emission allowances have remained almost unchanged on a weekly basis, with the December benchmark contract for EUA futures continuing to move in an upward technical pennant within a range of 65.39 to 68.80 euros.

If this formation is maintained, the price would move in the range of approx. 65 to 69 euros this week, the 200-day line, which currently stands at 65.12, could also provide support. In addition, a total of 14,582,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days.

For the procurement of national emission allowances for 2024, there are only six auctions left on Tuesdays and Thursdays at the EEX, in which we can participate for you. The last auction is on Thursday, 5 December 2024 and ends at 3:00 p.m.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument08/11/2415/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)68.02 EUR68.01 EUR-0.01 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.23 USD0.24 USD+0.01 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.10 USD0.21 USD+0.11 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)74.26 USD71.20 USD-3.06 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0715 USD1.0540 USD-0.0175 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (11/11/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States of America by a surprisingly large majority. As the 45th US President, he had already decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change during his first term in office. It can be assumed that Trump will act accordingly again after his inauguration.

The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), the 29th World Climate Conference, begins today in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, and is scheduled to run until 22 November 2024. In view of the change of power in Washington, this topic will certainly be on the agenda.

Other topics at COP29 include payments to the countries of the so-called ‘global South’ that are most affected by climate change, as well as a new financing target from 2026.

It will also address Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the associated market-based climate protection instruments and emissions offsetting mechanisms to combat the climate crisis. In addition, several other measures will be negotiated, such as a climate damage tax for polluting countries, technical solutions for greenhouse gas reduction, CO2 storage technologies and negative emissions technologies.

High hopes for breakthroughs in the negotiations, particularly with the largest global emitters, are likely to be in vain in Baku.

Last week, EU emission allowances rose sharply under the bullish influence of the electricity and gas market, closing the trading week up 6.5% on the previous week.

Technically, the path towards the 70-euro mark would be clear, but a relapse to the 200-day line, which is currently at 65.01, is also quite possible. Should one of these two marks be breached, either upwards or downwards, this could signal the short-term trend.

This week, a total of 11,749,000 EUA and, on Wednesday, 899,500 emission rights for the aviation industry (EUAA), which can also be used for stationary installations, will be auctioned on the European Energy Exchange.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument01/11/2408/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)63.87 EUR68.02 EUR+4.15 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.23 USD-0.17 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.10 USD-0.34 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)73.33 USD74.26 USD+0.93 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0834 USD1.0715 USD-0.0119 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (28/10/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The prices in the European Emissions Trading System EU ETS show the current price for the emission of one tonne of CO2 or its equivalent (CO2e) in the sectors currently priced by the EU, but what happens to the revenues generated by the European primary market auctions on the European Energy Exchange EEX?

Among other things, the European Union is supporting 85 innovative ‘net-zero projects’ with a total of 4.8 billion euros. These projects receive funding from the so-called innovation fund and are intended to develop climate-friendly technologies and make them usable, which should contribute to the decarbonisation of Europe.

These projects are located in 18 countries and are to be implemented by 2030, saving 476 million tonnes of CO2e in the first 10 years. They are in areas such as renewable energies, energy storage and mobility.

Last week, prices in the EU ETS recovered significantly compared to the previous week. After Monday was still bearish, the price rose to the 200-day line, particularly on Wednesday, and on Thursday this resistance and the 38-day line were also easily overcome.

After the 60-euro mark proved stable at the beginning of October and prices moved well away from it, some market participants closed their short positions and this short covering supported the 7.5% price increase on a weekly closing price basis.

However, since nothing has changed fundamentally, it is relatively likely that the market will calm down again in the coming week and tend more towards the 200-day line, which is currently at 64.91. It remains to be seen how strong it will prove to be as possible support.

After the 14,582,500 EUAs auctioned on the EEX last week, only 11,749,000 EUAs will be auctioned over four trading days in the new trading week, as the Polish auction is not scheduled to take place on Wednesday.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument18/10/2425/10/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)62.28 EUR66.97 EUR+4.69  EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.34 USD0.51 USD+0.17 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.42 USD0.43 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)73.46 USD76.05 USD+2.59 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0866 USD1.0795 USD-0.0071 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Marke News (14/10/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

After more than 140 years, the United Kingdom has become the first European industrialised country and the first G7 country to phase out the generation of electricity from coal, which is particularly harmful to the climate. On 30 September 2024, the last coal-fired power plant in Ratcliffe-on-Soar was shut down.

This was possible specifically because the UK continues to use nuclear power as a bridging technology.

And France, too, emitted about 3.6% fewer greenhouse gases in the first half of 2024, partly due to the expansion of renewable energies and the optimisation of nuclear energy use.

But more and more energy-intensive technology companies such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon are also increasingly relying on nuclear power to meet the ever-growing energy needs of their data centres and thus achieve their own emissions reduction targets. In particular, artificial intelligence and cloud computing have significantly increased the demand for electricity in this industry.

However, Germany also emitted around 40 million tonnes less CO2 in the energy sector in the first half of the year, due to both the expansion of renewable energies and the looming recession.

And it is precisely these developments that have led to the fact that in the past few months, rather bullish tendencies have been seen in the market for CO2 emission rights in the EU ETS since the highs in the triple digits in spring 2023.

However, in the past trading week, the 60-euro mark proved stable and although the price was briefly below 60 on Wednesday, a small rally set in, which ended on Thursday in the area of the 200-day line. On a weekly closing price basis, this resulted in a gain of just over 4%.

Should there be no further fundamental impulses, the market should move in the new trading week in the area of 60 euros and the 200-day line, which currently stands at 65.19.

This week, a total of 12,810,000 EUA will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days, which corresponds to a decrease of 12.15% compared to the previous week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument04/10/2411/10/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)62.05 EUR64.62 EUR+2.57 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.33 USD0.33 USD+0.00 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.38 USD0.43 USD+0.05 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)78.74 USD79.38 USD+0.64 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0965 USD1.0931 USD-0.0034 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (07/10/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Austrian National Bank (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) has used a simulation model to examine the effects of carbon prices on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the European Union and has also determined what the price of emission rights would have to be to avoid further measures to achieve the EU’s ‘Fit-for-55’ target.

Based on the current price, further measures such as the introduction of higher energy efficiency standards would have to be implemented to achieve the EU’s self-imposed climate targets. However, to avoid further measures altogether, the price of CO2 emissions would have to rise to EUR 668.00 per tonne of CO2 or its equivalent of other greenhouse gases (CO2e) by 2030.

According to the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, such a high price would result in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area in 2030 being 2.2% lower than it would have been without a high carbon price, while consumer prices would be 6.4% higher. However, economists consider these effects to be negligible because they would be spread over a period of six years.

We are currently well away from prices above the 600-euro mark in the EU ETS; the prices for EU emission rights are currently around a tenth of that. After a weekly gain of 4.6 per cent in the previous week, EUA fell by 6.5 per cent this week, despite the significant rise in oil prices due to the escalation in the Middle East. With a low of 61.41 last Friday, a six-month low was also reached.

This week, a total of 14,582,500 EUA will be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX, which corresponds to an increase of 15% compared to the previous week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument27/09/2404/10/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)66.33 EUR62.05 EUR-4.28 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.33 USD0.33 USD+0.00 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.37 USD0.38 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)71.99 USD78.74 USD+6.75 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.1166 USD1.0965 USD+0.0201 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team