Dear Sir or Madam,
Last Thursday, the German Bundestag approved the amendment to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) for the national emissions trading scheme in the coming year.
The price corridor will therefore remain, as this year, within a range of between 55 and 65 euros. During the auction phase, approximately 234 million allowances will be offered, representing an increase of just over 22 per cent compared with 2026.
In contrast to the draft bill, the price for the fixed-price phase has been reduced from 73 euros to 71 euros, and for the 10 per cent top-up rule in the following year, the proposed price has been reduced from 75 to 73 euros.
In addition, the procurement conditions are to be optimised, with the Bundestag calling for a lower liquidity burden during the auction phase. However, there are as yet no concrete plans in this regard.
Previously, the European Council had already adopted amendments to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) for the EU ETS2 for buildings and transport, due to commence in 2028, in order to keep prices moderate at the start of the trading scheme.
Should the price rise above 45 euros per EUA2, up to 40 million allowances are to be released onto the market – either in a single tranche or gradually – to bring prices down whilst simultaneously making it unattractive for speculative players to make bullish investments.
Furthermore, not all EU countries will participate in the EU ETS2 for buildings and transport from the outset in 2028. Only 13 EU countries will begin in 2028, with approximately 11,400 companies subject to the scheme.
According to the Leipzig-based energy exchange EEX, approximately 293 million allowances will be put up for auction as early as next year in the so-called ‘early auctions’ of the EU ETS2.
In light of the global energy crisis triggered by Donald Trump’s war on Iran, EU heads of government are now pressing, amongst other things, for the swift introduction of the revised Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in the EU ETS1, in order to prevent undesirable price rises here too.
As a result, EUA prices showed a rather bearish trend last week, falling by 1.8% on a weekly closing price basis. Last Friday’s closing price was a few cents below the 38-day moving average, which stood at 85.45. However, the price is still some way off the 200-day moving average, which currently stands at 79.38.
As the Polish Wednesday auction is suspended for two weeks, 9,922,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on the remaining four trading days.
| Instrument | 09/10/26 | 16/10/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 86.94 EUR | 85.41 EUR | -1.53 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2028-Future) | 71.50 EUR | 70.00 EUR | -1.50 EUR |
| nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates) | 68.00 EUR | 68.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 64.09 GBP | 63.41 GBP | -0.68 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 205.06 GBP | 219.65 GBP | +14.59 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 104.72 USD | 109.86 USD | +5.14 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1202 USD | 1.1239 USD | +0.0037 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
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With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team