Dear Sir or Madam,
The extent to which the US mid-term elections, taking place in early November, are putting Donald Trump under pressure is particularly evident in his attempts – which seem almost desperate – to lower US prices for fossil fuels, particularly petrol and diesel.
First, he persuaded the G7 nations to release a further 100 million barrels of oil over the next four months. He then announced a deal with Putin, under which the latter is now set to supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the US and the global market.
It is rather unlikely that the energy markets will be influenced by this to the extent that prices will fall noticeably as a result. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 300,000 tonnes would cover just 14 hours’ consumption in the United States. Furthermore, it is certainly not straightforward to source these quantities from Russia, as petrol stations there have been experiencing alarming fuel shortages for some time now.
In any case, by the end of last week, gas and oil prices had continued to rise, and prices for emission allowances in the EU ETS1 had also risen by a good 3 per cent compared with the previous week. One of the reasons for this is the improved economic outlook in Germany, but technical analysis also plays a part.
This week, a total of 11,867,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX) across all five trading days.
| Instrument | 02/10/26 | 09/10/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 84.42 EUR | 86.94 EUR | +2.52 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2027-Future) | 66.55 EUR | 66.55 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates) | 68.00 EUR | 68.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 60.98 GBP | 64.09 GBP | +3.11 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 190.11 GBP | 205.06 GBP | +14.95 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 102.25 USD | 104.72 USD | +2.47 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1253 USD | 1.1202 USD | -0.0051 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team