Dear Sir or Madam,
For decades, greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union have not fallen as sharply as they did in 2023 – excluding the 2020 coronavirus year, when they fell by 9.8% – with a decline of 8.3%, as published by the EU Commission last week. EU-wide, greenhouse gas emissions were thus 37% below 1990 levels, and the target for 2030 is 50%.
Unfortunately, this is not only due to carbon emissions trading, technical innovation and the use of renewable energies, but also to the decline in production in the EU, above all in Germany, the largest economy in the EU.
Surprisingly, the economy grew in Germany by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024, but a recession is expected in the fourth quarter.
Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner (FDP), has therefore now written a ‘concept for growth and intergenerational justice’ in which he proposes to cut all unnecessary subsidies and reduce bureaucracy, as well as climate plans in Germany that go beyond EU targets.
The FDP is of the opinion that emissions trading should be the sole instrument, which has demonstrably shown its effectiveness and reduced emissions in all sectors in which a price has been set through the ‘cap-and-trade’ mechanism.
Since this pragmatism is completely contrary to the ideas of the coalition partners, more than a few see an end to this government in the not too distant future.
Last week, EU emission allowances fell back into the red as expected, losing 4.6% on a weekly basis.
It is extremely difficult to predict how the market will develop this week, as political factors such as the outcome of the US elections or a further escalation of the dispute in the German government could have an influence on this, in addition to developments in the energy sector.
This week, 14,582,500 EUA will be auctioned on the EEX over all five trading days, an increase of 24% over the previous week.
The last auction for EUA on the Leipzig Energy Exchange EEX this year will take place on Monday, 16 December 2024, and the first auction in the coming year will take place on Tuesday, 7 January 2025.
In Germany’s national emissions trading scheme (nEHS), the final spurt is now on, with the last auction at which national emission certificates for 2024 (nEZ24) can be purchased this year taking place in just over a month, on Thursday, 5 December 2024.
In the following year, 2025, only 10% of the allowances available on the registry account on 31 December 2024 can be purchased in the nEHS at a price of 45 euros, so no levies should be made this year as part of compliance.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.
| (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC) | |||
| Instrument | 25/10/24 | 01/11/24 | Change |
| EUA (December-2024-Future) | 66.97 EUR | 63.87 EUR | -3.10 EUR |
| VER (Natural Carbon Offsets) | 0.51 USD | 0.40 USD | -0.09 USD |
| VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets) | 0.43 USD | 0.44 USD | +0.01 USD |
| nEZ (German National Carbon Units) | 45.00 EUR | 45.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) | 76.05 USD | 73.33 USD | -2.72 USD |
| EURO (Currency.. Forex) | 1.0795 USD | 1.0834 USD | +0.0039 USD |
(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team