Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (23/12/2024)

Ladies and gentlemen,

Last Tuesday, a group of Eastern European EU member states called for the entry into force of the EU ETS 2 for the buildings and transport sector to be postponed, as they fear social and economic consequences.

The politicians led by Czech Environment Minister Petr Hladik (EPP) expect petrol and diesel prices to rise by several dozen cents when it comes into force at the beginning of 2027.

The Alliance argues that a postponement by one year to 2028 would lead to greater acceptance and could also reduce market volatility, which would mean a reduction in the social impact. Some countries are even calling for a three-year postponement.

The market stability reserve, which would be used if prices were too volatile, should also be worth discussing.

In addition to the Czech Republic, Italy, Slovakia and Latvia are said to be open to such plans and France has also declared partial flexibility in this regard.

However, the EU Commission clearly spoke out against changes.

Last week, the previous benchmark contract for EUA December 2024 futures expired and the December 2025 contract has now taken over its function.

After prices trended significantly southwards on the first two trading days of last week, this trend came to a halt on Wednesday and, under the support of bullish gas prices, EUAs rose significantly on the last two trading days, closing the week with a price gain of 2.6%.

Interestingly, the support line at just under EUR 65 held and the 200-day line is now the next resistance level, currently at EUR 69.01.

As there will be no auctions in the EU ETS on the Leipzig EEX until January 16, 2025, pricing will now be determined entirely by fundamental news, the market environment and chart technology.

In addition, it has often been the case in recent years that institutional investors are still buying, which would give prices a bullish impetus.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument13/12/2420/12/24Change
EUA (December-2025-Future)66.47 EUR68.20 EUR+1.73 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.56 USD+0.16 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.45 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)74.56 USD73.11 USD+1.45 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0497 USD1.0429 USD-0.0068 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (16/12/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

In 2027, Germany’s national emissions trading under the Fuel Emissions Trading Act is to be transferred to the new second European Emissions Trading System EU ETS 2.

Now, the European Commission has set a quantity of 1,036,288,784 emission allowances for the buildings and transport sectors in relation to the 2027 cap. Here, too, an allowance represents the right to emit one tonne of CO2 with fossil fuels. No figures have yet been set for 2028.

According to the Commission, these 1.04 billion tons correspond to the average CO2 emissions in the priced sectors in the EU in 2016-2018. For 2028, the average emissions from 2024-2026 will be used as the baseline.

Buildings equipped with photovoltaic systems and/or heat pumps will therefore have significantly less to contribute under the EU ETS 2 carbon pricing system, and drivers of electric vehicles will also have a significant financial advantage.

Since the EU ETS 2 is expected to be particularly volatile in the first few months, it is advisable to work with a partner that has many years of experience in the EU ETS 1 and can recommend an appropriate optimal procurement strategy for the emission rights. Please feel free to contact us today if you will be participating in the EU ETS 2.

In the past week, EU ETS 1 emission allowances fell significantly in the run-up to the expiry of the December 2024 futures contract, losing almost 6% on a weekly closing price basis.

Today, the last auction of EU emission allowances (EUA) at the Leipzig EEX this year will also take place, with 3,428,000 certificates from EU stocks. 

Should the market remain bearish, we see support in the area of around 62.50, after which the 60-euro mark could provide market-psychological support. On the upside, the 200-day moving average is now a resistance level at 66.36 and just under 69 another resistance line.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument06/12/2413/12/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)68.31 EUR64.43 EUR-3.88 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.36 USD0.40 USD+0.04 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.46 USD0.44 USD-0.02 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)71.35 USD74.56 USD+3.21 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0568 USD1.0497 USD-0.0071 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (09/12/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the final auction for 2024 in the German national emissions trading system took place and the next auction is scheduled to take place in the second quarter of 2025, according to the German Emissions Trading Authority. Due to the deadline of September 30, 2025 for the emissions of 2024, this seems to be a negligible problem. However, companies that do not yet have all the necessary national emission certificates (nEZ) should already be devising an appropriate procurement strategy, and we would be happy to advise you on this.

In exactly one week, the last auction for EU emission rights in the EU ETS will also take place on the EEX, and it will remain interesting to see how prices will develop in view of this fact and the expiration of the December 2024 EUA futures contract on EEX and ICE, as well as the so-called “roll-over” into the next benchmark contract December 2025 by the end of the year.

In EU emissions trading, the deadline for surrendering emission rights for the year 2024 is also at the end of September 2025, with shipping companies with ships of more than 5,000 gross register tons participating in mandatory EU emissions trading for the first time this year. We are also happy to advise maritime companies in this area and, with our market-based procurement strategy, we also procure the required emission certificates.

Last week, EU emission rights fluctuated between 67.13 and 70.14 euros. After prices presented themselves bullishly in the middle of the week, the bears prevailed towards the end of the week in a rather negative environment on the energy market and closed with a moderate minus of nine cents or 0.13% compared to the previous week at 68.31.

This week, a total of 11,951,000 European Allowances (EUAs) will be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX, which represents an 18% decrease from the previous week, as only 198,000 EUAs will be offered at the Polish auction on Wednesday.

It will be interesting to see what the demand will be in the remaining six auctions this year.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument29/11/2406/12/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)68.40 EUR68.31 EUR-0.09 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.36 USD-0.04 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.46 USD+0.02 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)72.81 USD71.35 USD-1.46 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0575 USD1.0568 USD-0.0007 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (02/12/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

We have now reached December 2024 and the end of this year’s auctions in German national emissions trading in accordance with the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) and European emissions trading, which in Germany is regulated by the Greenhouse Emissions Trading Act (TEHG), is approaching.

In national emissions trading, the last auctions for this year will take place tomorrow and on Thursday on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) and companies that are obliged to submit allowances would be well advised not to wait until Thursday afternoon to place their orders and transfer funds, as technical failures or delays at the banks can always occur.

It is not yet clear when the first auctions will take place in 2025, but we do not expect them to take place until May 2025; the German Emissions Trading Authority has announced the second quarter.

In European emissions trading (EU ETS), the last auction of this year will take place on Monday, December 16, 2024. The first auction of the new year will be held exactly one month later on Tuesday, January 16, 2025.

According to the EEX, a total of 680,969,000 emission allowances are to be auctioned in 2025, including 11,544,850 for aviation. However, this makes no difference, as both EUAs for the aviation industry and EUAAs for stationary installations can now be used.

This week, a total of 14,582,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days.

In the past trading week, these have ranged from 67.13 to 71.54 in the benchmark December 2024 contract. Prices remained in the upward trend channel until Thursday, which was also due to reports that the EU intends to impose minimum stocks for gas storage facilities for February 2025. On Friday, however, there was profit-taking, which caused prices for EUAs to fall by 1.26% at the end of the week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument22/11/2429/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)69.27 EUR68.40 EUR-0.87 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.32 USD0.40 USD+0.08 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.25 USD0.44 USD+0.19 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)74.59 USD72.81 USD-1.78 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0414 USD1.0575 USD+0.0161 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (11/11/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States of America by a surprisingly large majority. As the 45th US President, he had already decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change during his first term in office. It can be assumed that Trump will act accordingly again after his inauguration.

The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), the 29th World Climate Conference, begins today in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, and is scheduled to run until 22 November 2024. In view of the change of power in Washington, this topic will certainly be on the agenda.

Other topics at COP29 include payments to the countries of the so-called ‘global South’ that are most affected by climate change, as well as a new financing target from 2026.

It will also address Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the associated market-based climate protection instruments and emissions offsetting mechanisms to combat the climate crisis. In addition, several other measures will be negotiated, such as a climate damage tax for polluting countries, technical solutions for greenhouse gas reduction, CO2 storage technologies and negative emissions technologies.

High hopes for breakthroughs in the negotiations, particularly with the largest global emitters, are likely to be in vain in Baku.

Last week, EU emission allowances rose sharply under the bullish influence of the electricity and gas market, closing the trading week up 6.5% on the previous week.

Technically, the path towards the 70-euro mark would be clear, but a relapse to the 200-day line, which is currently at 65.01, is also quite possible. Should one of these two marks be breached, either upwards or downwards, this could signal the short-term trend.

This week, a total of 11,749,000 EUA and, on Wednesday, 899,500 emission rights for the aviation industry (EUAA), which can also be used for stationary installations, will be auctioned on the European Energy Exchange.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument01/11/2408/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)63.87 EUR68.02 EUR+4.15 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.23 USD-0.17 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.10 USD-0.34 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)73.33 USD74.26 USD+0.93 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0834 USD1.0715 USD-0.0119 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team