News

Dear Madam or Sir,

Last week, the European Parliament adopted a legal framework for the storage of CO2 in peatlands and forests.

There can be issued certificates for this, which industrial companies as well as agricultural and forestry businesses can trade if they allow carbon to be stored in peatlands through afforestation, foundation plants or carbon sequestration.

Industrial companies could generate income by permanently binding CO2 in rock (carbon capture and storage), for example in the building materials and cement industries.

The exact structure of carbon trading has not yet been clarified. In addition, the Council of Europe still has to give its formal approval.

In the past trading week, EUA emission allowances gained more than 18% due to the ongoing short covering and closed above the upward trend channel and the EUR 70 mark.

With a closing price of EUR 71.55, they closed near to an important resistance line and are now only around four euros away from the 200-day line.

In addition to the 200-day line, however, there is further resistance in the EUR 75 area, which is counteracting the current bullish momentum.

On the other hand, the price is finding support in the EUR 70 and EUR 65 areas; the 38-day line is currently at EUR 60.46.

As the Polish auction will not take place on Wednesday, a total of 11,094,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig on the other four trading days of this trading week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	05/04/24	12/04/24	Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)	60.58 EUR	71.55 EUR	+10.97 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	1.02 USD	1.40 USD	+0.38 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.63 USD	0.63 USD	+0.00 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	45.00 EUR	45.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	90.52 USD	89.65 USD	-0.87 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0834 USD	1.0639 USD	-0.0195 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

Companies covered by the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) recorded a 15.3% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions last year, according to preliminary figures from the European Commission.

The emissions of companies subject to trading obligations totalled 1,111 million tonnes of CO2 or its equivalent (CO2e) of other greenhouse gases in 2023. In the previous year 2022, this figure was 1,312 million tonnes of CO2e.

Prices for emissions in the EU ETS fell slightly last week based on the weekly closing prices, as they had already left the upward trend channel on Tuesday. On the last two trading days, however, prices recovered and closed above the 38-day line and the EUR 60 mark again.

Following the two trading weeks shortened due to the Easter holidays, a total of 13,404,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the European Energy Exchange on all five trading days this week.

The exceptionally mild temperatures in Central Europe and the high auction volume could have a bearish effect on the price trend.

The fact that the Easter holidays are over and most market participants are now back at work could support the price.

From a technical perspective, a return of the price to the previous upward trend channel is possible, but so is a dip below the EUR 60 line.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	28/03/24	05/04/24	Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)	61.80 EUR	60.58 EUR	-1.22 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	0.89 USD	1.02 USD	+0.13 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.65 USD	0.63 USD	-0.02 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	45.00 EUR	45.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	86.82 USD	90.52 USD	+3.70 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0788 USD	1.0834 USD	+0.0046 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

The consulting firm EY has calculated that Germany will lose around 50 billion in tax revenue between 2024 and 2030 as a result of the switch to electromobility.

In particular, this includes revenue from mineral oil tax and national carbon emissions trading.

However, it is not foreseeable how this revenue shortfall will be plugged; after all, electric cars run on the same electricity that households use and a steadily growing number of homeowners are refuelling their cars with solar power.

The rising prices in emissions trading will certainly compensate for some of this, but it is safe to assume that legislators will develop ideas to generate the missing revenue. 

The only dilemma is that they cannot ask drivers of electric vehicles to pay directly, as this would be counterproductive for climate protection and the achievement of the sector target.

Last week, prices for EU emission allowances remained stable in the upward trend channel that has been developing for more than a month and once again achieved a small gain of 0.5% at the end of the week.

If this trend channel continues to prove resilient, a trading range between around EUR 59.50 and EUR 67.70 is conceivable in the second week of Easter, with the 38-day line at EUR 59.53 also providing support. The 200-day line is still a long way off at EUR 76.81.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	22/03/24	28/03/24	Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)	61.51 EUR	61:80 EUR	+0.29 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	0.99 USD	0.89 USD	-0.10 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.43 USD	0.65 USD	+0.22 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	45.00 EUR	45.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	85.01 USD	86.82 USD	+1.81 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0807 USD	1.0788 USD	-0.0019 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

The national emissions trading scheme (nEHS) in Germany will end in 2027, as it will be transferred to the EU emissions trading system EU ETS II. In the nEHS, the emission of one tonne of CO2 for fossil fuels currently costs €45, compared to €30 in the previous year. And in 2026 the costs will continue to be capped at €65 per tonne despite free pricing.

From the transition to the EU ETS II, it could be more than 200 euros per tonne as early as 2027, which means a considerable additional burden for companies and private households.

For this reason, the German federal states have now called on the federal government to create the conditions for paying out the citizens’ allowance this year and to pay it out from 2025.

Pragmatic thinkers simply cannot understand what the problem with this is. After all, pretty much the first thing a person in Germany receives is their personal tax ID and with the help of this and a corresponding bank account number, the money could also be paid out technically.

For the fourth time in a row, the price in the EU ETS rose by just under 4% at the end of the week. Technically, it has thus closed above the 38-day line and held at a resistance line slightly above the EUR 62 mark. If a stable upward trend channel forms here, the next technical resistance would be in the EUR 67 area.

Due to Good Friday, 11,608,500 EUA will be auctioned on the EEX this week. Next week there will only be 7,995,000 EUA due to Easter Monday and the absence of the Polish auction.

On the other hand, in addition to the Easter holidays, the higher temperatures this week could have a bearish effect on the carbon price.

We wish you a happy Easter holiday!

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	15/03/24	22/03/24	Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)	59.39 EUR	61.51 EUR	+2.12 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	1.22 USD	0.99 USD	-0.23 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.42 USD	0.43 USD	+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	45.00 EUR	45.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	84.89 USD	85.01 USD	+0.12 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0887 USD	1.0807 USD	-0.0080 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

Last week, the German Economics and Climate Minister Robert Habeck presented Germany’s figures for greenhouse gas emissions last year.

According to these figures, a total of 10.1% or 76 million tonnes of CO2e less was emitted in 2023 in Germany than in the previous year, which is the sharpest decline since 1990. However, the transport sector is still 13 million tonnes above the target value, which is why the Federal Environment Agency sees an urgent need for action here, even though there was a reduction of 1.2% compared to the previous year.

The building sector, which is also priced in national emissions trading alongside transport, recorded a decrease of 7.5% or 8.3 million tonnes of CO2. However, the mild winter temperatures are partly responsible for this.

The energy sector has made good progress here, having emitted just under 52 million tonnes less thanks to the expansion of renewable energies and is therefore responsible for the lion’s share of the greenhouse gas reduction.

Industry also emitted 13 million tonnes of CO2 or almost 8% less. This means that emissions fell for the second year in a row, although this is largely due to the weakening economy in Germany.

For the third week in a row, prices for EU emission allowances have risen slightly compared to the previous week and are only just below the 60 euro mark, which was briefly exceeded on Friday.

Even if some readers consider the current prices to be far too low, pricing via the market is a great thing and is proving its advantage over a fixed tax on greenhouse gas emissions, especially at the present time, by relieving the economy and consumers in difficult times, as shown by falling inflation.

A total of 12,005,500 EU emission allowances will be auctioned this week, including 906,000 allowances for aviation on Wednesday. However, these can also be used for stationary installations. Compared to the previous week, the auction volume has therefore fallen by 10.4%.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	08/03/24	15/03/24	Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)	58.39 EUR	59.39 EUR	+1.00 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	1.37 USD	1.22 USD	-0.15 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.46 USD	0.42 USD	-0.04 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	45.00 EUR	45.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	81.64 USD	84.89 USD	+3.25 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0946 USD	1.0887 USD	-0.0059 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH