Category: Carbon Market News

Dear Sir or Madam,

In the past few days, events in Europe and the rest of the world have developed with unprecedented dynamism in relation to the corona virus.

Apart from the effects on social life and health care, the economy in particular will suffer significantly from the events. But now not only large companies from the manufacturing or service sectors are affected, it will also burden small and medium-sized companies.

One only has to think of the restaurants, bars, retailers and handicraft businesses, which in many cases do not have sufficient liquidity reserves to survive a business shutdown even for a few weeks. Even if the German government and the EU want to take historic measures to contain the economic and financial crisis, many smaller companies will still be hard hit because aid loans will also have to be repaid.

Financial markets closed with a plus sign after last week’s crash last Friday, and the Nikkei in Tokyo posted only a slight loss. However, the nervousness is likely to result in further losses, which is not surprising given the dynamic developments at the political level.

To avoid Italian conditions, further cuts appear to be unavoidable in Germany from the current perspective, which should not lead to buyers returning to the financial markets.

While the CO2 emission rights had held up fairly well last week and survived the crash on the stock and energy markets with relatively moderate losses, they slumped by more than 8% on Monday morning at the start of trading. The further development in Europe will certainly remain the most important factor in the coming days and weeks.

The Advantag team will continue to be available for you as usual in the coming days.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	06/03/2020	13/03/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	23.40 EUR	21.92 EUR	-1.48 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	23.42 EUR	21.94 EUR	-1.48EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.29 EUR	0.29 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	45.46 USD	35.07 USD	-10.42 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1284 USD	1.1100 USD	+0.0184 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

OPEC tried to cut production to stabilize prices at the end of last week, but failed in negotiations with Russia. Originally, the daily production limits were to be reduced by a further 1.5 million barrels.

The issue of the corona virus currently dominates the financial and raw materials markets clearly, which is why the oil cartel considered this measure to be necessary. From OPEC’s point of view, it made more sense to extract a little less oil, but to realize more yields due to the rising prices.

As of Friday, Brent Crude Oil lost a good $ 5.00 and further negative reports regarding the European corona virus over the weekend caused a veritable crash on the market this morning. The oil price declined a good 30% and was just in the low at just over USD 31.

The fact that the oil price repeats itself quickly depends not least on signals from Russia, whether they are still giving in to support market prices. Russia is by far the largest oil supplier for Germany.

The German DAX index also lost more than 7% in early trading, while gold and the euro, on the other hand, benefit from the current market situation.

The prices for European CO2 emission allowances also fell significantly this morning by more than 3%, which is, however, significantly less than could be expected in relation to the oil crash. With a current price of around EUR 22.50 per EUA, the price is not far from the 6-month low of EUR 22.26 on October 9, 2019.

In the coming days, the nervousness of the financial and commodity markets will remain price-setting due to the fear of a recession regarding emission rights.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	28/02/2020	06/03/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	23.55 EUR	23.40 EUR	-0.15 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	23.61 EUR	23.42 EUR	-0.19 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.26 EUR	0.29 EUR	+0.03 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	50.06 USD	45.46 USD	-4.60 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1026 USD	1.1284 USD	+0.0258 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The general hysteria with regard to the corona virus has not only continued to affect the financial and raw material markets, but meanwhile also large parts of the country in Germany. Not only did the DAX dip to 11,725 ​​in the past week, numerous foods such as pasta, flour and yeast also disappeared from supermarket shelves in western Germany.

There are currently just under 90,000 registered infections worldwide, of which 80,000 are in China – a country with 1.4 billion inhabitants. In Germany there are not even 200 cases with 82 million inhabitants, but there are already end times in many of them – the market reactions and the run to the supermarkets cannot be explained otherwise.

From a pragmatic point of view, however, two points can be made: on the one hand, it is an interesting test run to see how long a serious pandemic with a high mortality rate could be contained and, on the other hand, a stress test for banks and the economy.

At the moment, it appears that both the spread of Covod-19 and a little more reason seem to be returning to the markets, as the first counter-reaction appears to be emerging in the financial markets as well as in the commodity and energy markets.

This morning the EUAs can be seen above the 24 Euro mark again. If both Corona and the collective panic do not spread further, there would be a corresponding upward potential.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	21/02/2020	28/02/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	25.55 EUR	23.55 EUR	+2.00 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	25.61 EUR	23.61 EUR	+2.00 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.24 EUR	0.26 EUR	+0.02 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	58.44 USD	50.06 USD	-8.38 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0848 USD	1.1026 USD	+0.0178 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

in the north of Germany, the hurricane “Sabine”, has weakened and is now moving further south. As a result, some 20,000 households in Bavaria were cut off from the power grid this morning. Initial reports from the north and centre of Germany speak of injured people, destroyed houses and cars, closed motorways and massive disruption to rail and air traffic. Apparently, the highest wind speed of 177 km/h was measured on the Feldberg. Also, from England, Scotland and the Netherlands, where the hurricane was given the name “Chiara”, massive damages are reported. And the storm will probably continue to keep Europe in suspense in the coming days, causing considerable disruption with wind speeds of up to 150 km/h and heavy rain and snowfall.

At about the same time, the Argentinean Antarctic research station Esperanzan reports the highest temperature ever measured, at 18.3 degrees Celsius. This significantly exceeds the previous temperature record of 17.5 degrees from 2015. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets in the Antarctic as a result of global warming is being watched with concern by scientists, as it is a major factor in the rise of sea levels worldwide.

A look at the price of CO2 emission rights shows a further decline in the past trading week. Weak economic data from Europe and significantly weaker demand from China initially pushed the price of crude oil further down for the week. Although news of a possible cutback in production volumes by the OPEC+ countries initially provided a short-term recovery, the uninterrupted spread of the corona virus is a significant burden on the market.

The price of European Pollution Rights followed the price of Crude Oil last week in a conspicuous manner and starts the new trading week weakened once again.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	31/01/2020	07/02/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	23.81 EUR	23.28 EUR	-0.53 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	23.88 EUR	23.34 EUR	-0.54 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.22 EUR	0.21 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	56.62 USD	54.50 USD	-2.12 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1090 USD	1.0944 USD	-0.0146 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The press has reported much less about “Fridays for Future” in the past days and months. It was also clear to Greta Thunberg and her colleagues that all the hype is over. But what remains in the end?

More than you could expect at the beginning. In all of the discussions, some of which are strongly polarized, a change has occurred in many areas. In addition to climate protection, which every major party in Germany now wants to prevent with the exception of the AfD, more and more people are considering the sustainability of their actions. Even the ADAC is turning away from its stance against a general speed limit, which would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

But more importantly – young people are becoming more political again and give climate protection a high priority. According to a study by the Federal Environment Agency presented last week, it is very important for 45 percent and rather important for another 33 percent. From the point of view of young people, environmental and climate protection also has a positive impact on social goals. For example, it is particularly important for 65 percent that future generations without adequate environmental and climate protection would be burdened by massive environmental problems.

The prices for CO2 emission allowances have decreased repeatedly in the past week compared to the previous week. Here Brexit does not allow bullish sentiment, even if the British only leave the European emissions trading system at the end of the year at the end of the third trading period. The British auctions should also start again at the end of March at the latest.

In addition, the significantly lower oil price, which is so worrying for OPEC that it is considering moving to its next meeting, together with weak gas prices, is putting pressure on prices.

The current trading week also starts in the red, although the technical indicators are currently bearish.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	24/01/2020	31/01/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	24.36 EUR	23.81 EUR	-0.55 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	24.45 EUR	23.88 EUR	-0.57 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.22 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	60.50 USD	56.62 USD	-3.88 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1025 USD	1.1090 USD	+0.0065 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH