Category: Carbon Market News

Dear Madam or Sir,

although the extent of the global recession is still completely unknown, the energy market seems to be slowly recovering. For example, the International Energy Agency IEA sees a more relaxed situation for crude oil compared to the previous month. And the price recovery of the past few weeks seems to prove her right. For the current year, the IEA now calculates a drop in demand of just 8.6 million barrels a day; compared to the previous calculation, this is 0.7 million barrels a day more.

Analysts are now increasingly assuming that there could be a consolidation, particularly on the oil market, in which the well-positioned industry giants could emerge stronger and the number of competitors will decrease. In addition, production of shale oil and gas will continue to decline in the coming years due to the low market prices.

One of the global oil giants, Shell, published last week the result of an analysis of the price of the European CO2 emissions market in connection with the stated goal of being greenhouse gas neutral in Europe in 2050. Shell assumes that a price per EUA of EUR 200 is necessary to achieve the corresponding guiding effect through emissions trading.

The EUA was also stable last week, but still below the important mark of EUR 20.00 per tonne.

This week, due to the holiday, a total of 11.5 million EUAs will only be auctioned at two European and one Polish auction on the Leipzig electricity exchange EEX, Monday through Wednesday. There is no auction on the Friday bridge day or on Ascension Day. In the coming week, three auctions will only be announced due to the British Spring Bank Holiday, in which only a total of 8.5 million EUA will be offered.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	08/05/2020	15/05/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	19.27 EUR	19.47 EUR	+0.20 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	19.35 EUR	19.52 EUR	+0.17 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.32 EUR	0.32 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	30.96 USD	32.86 USD	+1.90 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0836 USD	1.0820 USD	-0.0016 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

Hardly anyone is happy about the restrictions that came with the onset of the Corona crisis. The majority of people are happy about the easing that has been announced in the past few days. That is understandable. The problem with this is that the danger, which appears more and more people very abstract, can trigger a second wave of infection, which in turn requires significantly stronger restrictions. Germany in particular has done a lot right in the past few weeks, as can be seen from the mortality rate and the occupancy of the intensive care beds. But now there is a risk that this advantage will be jeopardized, which poses significant economic and social risks. From the point of view of many scientists, a further two or three weeks with increased lockdown would have been necessary to bring the number of cases to below 300 per day, which would make it much easier to track infection chains.

Now, the number of cases per 100,000 citizens in cities and counties should decide whether easing the situation or allowing it to be withdrawn. There are currently four counties above the existing limit of 50, but more are just around the corner. In some counties, this could lead to more optimistic figures in order to secure jobs.

Regardless of this, there are people who adhere to the corona crisis as a conspiracy with truly crude theories. Most of them are also those who ignore anthropogenic climate change. It repeatedly shows clearly that both the global context and the simple logic of cause and effect are too complex for some people to be able to classify them correctly.

It is to be hoped that the majority of people will continue to abide by the hygiene rules so that a second wave does not require further restrictions, or only to a small extent, in order to keep the further economic damage and costs as low as possible , because only that can save jobs and prosperity.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	01/05/2020	08/05/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	18.90 EUR	19.27 EUR	+0.37 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	18.97 EUR	19.35 EUR	+0.38 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.32 EUR	0.32 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	26.52 USD	30.96 USD	+4.44 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0978 USD	1.0836 USD	-0.0142 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sirs and Madames,

Today the Petersberg climate dialogue begins, in which international measures to combat global warming are negotiated. As a novelty, this conference is taking place virtually for the first time, which is not least more conducive to the climate than if ministers from 30 nations travel by plane.

However, due to the global corona pandemic, the focus this year has shifted to sustainable crisis management, and the world should emerge from the crisis in a more crisis-proof and climate-friendly manner. Crisis as an opportunity, so to speak.

The President this year is the British Minister for the Economy and Energy, Alok Sharma. He sees the opportunity for a green and crisis-proof restart to meet the commitments of the Paris climate protection agreement. Here, a “green recovery” is desirable, which can be achieved, among other things, by target-oriented economic stimulus programs.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will also give a speech on Tuesday, which is eagerly awaited due to her global political influence.

It would be a tragedy if the world did not use this phase of the global crisis to seize the unique opportunity to make itself more environmentally friendly and sustainable. In coping with the corona pandemic, almost all state leaders ultimately show that they can govern responsibly.

In the past trading week, the prices for CO2 emission certificates were stable despite the oil crisis and decoupled from the events on the energy markets. While oil warehouses around the world are full and demand will not increase significantly in the foreseeable future, the prices for European permit rights EUA remain in the range of around 21 euros in the last week before the deadline for 2019 significantly influenced, will be visible at the beginning of the next trading week at the latest.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	17/04/2020	17/04/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	21.66 EUR	21.01 EUR	-0.65 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	21.70 EUR	21.05 EUR	-0.65 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.31 EUR	0.31 EUR	+0.02 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	28.25 USD	21.86 USD	-6.39 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0871 USD	1.0819 USD	-0.0052 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

The sky over northern Europe is a brilliant blue – a message that not only spreads good humour. In Germany, for example, the stable weather conditions this month caused temperatures to be significantly too high and a pronounced drought. On a long-term average, April is already 1.7 degrees too warm and a change in the situation is predicted by meteorologists for May at the earliest. In terms of the usual amount of precipitation, April has so far only met just under 3 percent of its target. These are alarming messages for agriculture and forestry.

This is a continuation of the problematic weather situations which scientists clearly attribute to global climate change. It is therefore extremely important that in its fight against the corona pandemic, politicians do not neglect the fight to achieve the climate targets. In fact, the first voices have already been heard that would like to see efforts to reduce CO2 emissions weakened by the crisis.

A look at the oil price shows that the decision of the oil-producing countries has had no lasting impact on the market situation. The planned reductions in production volumes are obviously not sufficient to compensate for the imbalance between supply and demand. Thus, after a brief recovery, the oil price is once again in the region of its 20-year low.

The price of CO2 emission certificates was also impressed by this last week and initially lost significantly in the middle of the week. In the second half of the week, however, buyers showed great favour and pulled the price up rapidly. At the start of the new trading week and with the deadline for compliance in mind, the price is currently above the 21-euro mark.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	09/04/2020	17/04/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	21,03 EUR	21.66 EUR	+0.63 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	21,08 EUR	21.70 EUR	+0.62 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0,31 EUR	0.31 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	31,77 USD	28.25 USD	-3.52 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1,0923 USD	1.0871 USD	-0.0052 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH