Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (18/05/2020)

Dear Madam or Sir,

although the extent of the global recession is still completely unknown, the energy market seems to be slowly recovering. For example, the International Energy Agency IEA sees a more relaxed situation for crude oil compared to the previous month. And the price recovery of the past few weeks seems to prove her right. For the current year, the IEA now calculates a drop in demand of just 8.6 million barrels a day; compared to the previous calculation, this is 0.7 million barrels a day more.

Analysts are now increasingly assuming that there could be a consolidation, particularly on the oil market, in which the well-positioned industry giants could emerge stronger and the number of competitors will decrease. In addition, production of shale oil and gas will continue to decline in the coming years due to the low market prices.

One of the global oil giants, Shell, published last week the result of an analysis of the price of the European CO2 emissions market in connection with the stated goal of being greenhouse gas neutral in Europe in 2050. Shell assumes that a price per EUA of EUR 200 is necessary to achieve the corresponding guiding effect through emissions trading.

The EUA was also stable last week, but still below the important mark of EUR 20.00 per tonne.

This week, due to the holiday, a total of 11.5 million EUAs will only be auctioned at two European and one Polish auction on the Leipzig electricity exchange EEX, Monday through Wednesday. There is no auction on the Friday bridge day or on Ascension Day. In the coming week, three auctions will only be announced due to the British Spring Bank Holiday, in which only a total of 8.5 million EUA will be offered.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
EUA (Spotmarket)19.27 EUR19.47 EUR+0.20 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)19.35 EUR19.52 EUR+0.17 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)0.32 EUR0.32 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)30.96 USD32.86 USD+1.90 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.0836 USD1.0820 USD-0.0016 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH