Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (08/11/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The first week of the World Climate Conference in Glasgow (COP26) is over and, as usual, opinions on what has been achieved so far are widely divided. A decision to limit methane emissions and a declaration on halting deforestation are among the notable highlights of the negotiations so far. Climate experts around the world never get tired of calculating how the announcements and adjustments made so far would affect the achievement of the Paris climate goals if strictly implemented. In this context, the International Energy Agency (ETA) and the University of Melbourne, for example, see some light at the end of the tunnel, as they all agree that the temperature increase should be limited to less than two degrees.

Of course, these are forecasts based on declarations of intent. It was, after all, an essential part of the Paris Agreement that nations should be allowed to decide for themselves what they approve and when they implement it to contribute their share to the goals. They now seem to be within reach, but what is decisive is the actual effort to finally reach the end of the tunnel.

Hardly any other issue illustrates this as clearly as the phase-out of coal production. In the public perception, this seems to be a kind of currency by which one can read off what progress is being made. This is certainly neither right nor fair, but it makes obvious that explanations and decision-making aids are urgently needed for a topic that is also historically so incredibly complex.

At the beginning of the last trading week, after a longer, stable sideways movement, there was again a significant correction on the carbon market. Important technical signals were broken through, but the downward trend was stopped at the 57-euro mark. The second half of the week was then marked by a nervous battle for the 60-euro line. This resulted in a slight plus on a weekly basis.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument29/10/2105/11/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)58.69 EUR59.38 EUR+0.69 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)58.71 EUR59.39 EUR+0.68 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)4.78 USD4.78 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)13.69 USD13.69 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)83.69 USD82.26 USD-1.43 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1561 USD1.1569 USD+0.0008 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (01/11/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Federal Republic of Germany is the only economically significant country in the European Union to pay compensation for failure to achieve the climate targets in 2020.

Germany is obliged. To acquire a total of 22 million emission units (AAU) from countries that have exceeded their greenhouse gas reduction targets. The German Federal Environment Ministry is now in negotiations with various states regarding the acquisition of emission certificates.

Yesterday in Rome the G20 states agreed on a compromise, which assumes that the target of global warming can be limited to a maximum of 1.5° C. It was not possible to agree on specific measures.

In order to achieve the goal anyway, the 26th Conference Of Parties, COP26, started in Glasgow on Sunday. Expectations with regard to the negotiations regarding the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 are not particularly high. The statements made by Russian President Putin, who wants to make his country climate-neutral by 2060, are all the more surprising.

In the past week of trading, the prices for European emission rights on a weekly closing price basis rose moderately despite the weakening oil prices and moved in a range between EUR 57.92 and EUR 60.20 for the December future. The next few days will show whether the Glaswegian negotiations will have an impact on prices.

This week again, 11.4 million EUA will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument22/10/2129/10/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)58.24 EUR58.69 EUR+0.45 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)58.27 EUR58.71 EUR+0.44 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)4.78 USD4.78 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)13.69 USD13.69 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)85.86 USD83.69 USD-2.17 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1645 USD1.1561 USD-0.0084 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (11/10/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The discussion about the high energy prices continued at the different platforms during the last trading week. The search for the causes poses a not inconsiderable challenge, because in an open, globally networked market, the connections between causes and effects can rarely be precisely depicted.

So, while some saw the sharp rise in the carbon price itself as the cause, other market observers tended to see the gas price as the driving force. And depending on this, corresponding political demands follow. Apparently, the EU Commission is considering both short-term regulatory intervention in the gas market and more sustainable strategies to contain energy prices. This, in turn, may have motivated Russian President Putin to speak loudly about increasing supply volumes. Poland, which is currently walking politically on the edge of a Polexit, wants a price cap on CO2 like a mantra, and voices are also getting louder here and there calling for access restrictions for speculators.

However, their influence is obvious as far as they are concerned. Of course, this is true in all sectors that speculators are discovering as a playground for themselves – and sometimes even with dramatic effects on entire economies and/or on the fate of individuals. There is no doubt that the speculative participants have recently helped to raise the carbon price to a level that influences environmentally relevant corporate decisions – a goal explicitly sought by the Paris Agreement.

Last Wednesday, however, the price of European pollution rights fell by around 9 percent amid huge trading volumes, driving the price from over 65 euros to below the 58-euro mark for a short time. This was of course a buy signal, especially for compliance companies, and so the price initially rose again a little. By the end of trading, however, the market had not really recovered from this correction and it remains to be seen when and at what pace the price will rise again.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument01/10/2108/10/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)61.99 EUR58.29 EUR-3.70 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)62.04 EUR58.33 EUR-3.71 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)3.50 USD3.50 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)14.49 USD14.49 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)79.14 USD82.50 USD+3.36 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1592 USD1.1580 USD-0.0012 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (04/10/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The preparatory conference for this year’s World Climate Conference in Glasgow took place in Milan from September 30th to October 2nd. Participating ministers from several countries spoke out in favor of concluding negotiations on international trade in emissions certificates in line with the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The representatives formulated the clear expectation that all technical work must now move forward quickly in order to take all outstanding decisions on the conclusion of the Paris climate agreement in Glasgow. There was also the expectation that the process for the new climate finance target for the period after 2025 would be drawn up in Glasgow and that sufficient consideration would also be given to the damage caused by climate change.

In addition to the conference, almost 400 young people from 186 countries discussed their expectations of climate policy and the outcome of COP 26 at “Youth4 Climate 2021” and presented their demands to the ministers meeting in Italy.

Meanwhile, there are also talks in Brussels calling for institutional speculators to be curtailed on the price development of CO2 emission rights in order to reduce the effects of the high prices of the energy market in connection with emission rights on European households with low incomes. A debate is to take place on October 6th in the EU Parliament with representatives of the European Commission and representatives of the Council of Europe of the member states, at which this will be discussed. In the past week, more than 300 mutual funds reported holding positions in the European carbon market.

Last Tuesday, the prices for EUAs reached a new all-time high of 65.77 Euros, but had to fall significantly again by the end of the trading week due to profit-taking, which is why the market on a weekly closing price basis lost 1.4% compared to the previous week.

It should be interesting in the coming weeks how the debate about speculative funds will develop and whether and when there could be position limits or similar restrictions.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument24/09/2101/10/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)62.78 EUR61.99 EUR-0.79 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)62.94 EUR62.04 EUR-0.90 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)3.50 USD3.50 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)14.49 USD14.49 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)78.03 USD79.14 USD+1.11 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1720 USD1.1592 USD-0.0128 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (24/09/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

yesterday, Sunday, the outcome of the elections in Germany suggests that the formation of a government will be rather difficult. But especially the most unpleasant constellation from the point of view of the capital markets, a possible new red-green-red federal government did not get a majority, which the stock exchange prices this morning already rewarded with the DAX. The probability that there will be radical political changes is significantly lower with the possible government coalitions that are now to be formed.

Even if the German Greens did worse than expected, it is very likely that they will play a role in the new government, be it with the leading CDU / CSU union or the SPD.

In doing so, it is very likely that they will want to implement more climate protection and that already set incentives to buy on the market for European CO2 emission rights on Friday in the run-up to the elections. These were seen in particular by investment funds that have expanded their portfolio of emission rights. The oil prices also supported the rise and so the EUAs reached a new all-time high of EUR 64.16 on the futures market on Friday afternoon, after which the prices fell back somewhat towards the end of the day.

This morning the market is still clearly bullish, which has led to a new current all-time high of EUR 64.85. It is currently not foreseeable when there will be a correction which taxable companies could use to buy.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument17.09.2112.09.21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)59.45 EUR62.78 EUR+3.33 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)59.48 EUR62.94 EUR+3.46 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)3.50 USD3.50 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)14.49 USD14.49 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)75.31 USD78.03 USD+2.72 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1737 USD1.1720 USD-0.0017 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH