Author: advantag

Dear Sir or Madam,

France has called the European Union for a price corridor for CO2 emissions trading in order to limit volatility driven by speculation while still being in line with the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The French Minister for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, explained that companies should be given long-term price signals so that they can adapt and plan ahead.

On the other hand, the Berlin think tank Agora Energiewende is calling for a minimum price in the EU ETS II. In its recently published policy brief “Course to Goal Achievement”, Agora recommends a minimum price of 90 euros when the EU ETS II is introduced in 2027. The target price set by the EU is between 48 and 80 euros.

In addition, Agora repeatedly proposes paying a climate allowance of 120 euros per person from 2026, which should then be scaled according to income in subsequent years. At present, this would correspond to about half of the revenue from national emissions trading system in Germany.

So far, however, there has been no information regarding the climate allowance in the current German coalition negotiations between the CDU/CSU and SPD.

Under pressure from further falling gas prices, the price of EU ETS emission allowances fell back below the 70 euro mark last week and ended the week down 3.7% on Friday.

Last Thursday, EUAs broke through the 200-day-line and moved towards the strong support level described in the last market report at just over 68 euros. On Friday, this technical support also held and the price recovered slightly to a closing price of 68.80 in the benchmark contract.

This week, auctions will be held on all five trading days on the EEX, with a total of 13,417,000 EUAs being auctioned.

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

In recent weeks, the topic of price developments for fossil fuels following the introduction of EU ETS II in 2027 has been repeatedly taken up by the press. Since journalists tend to copy each other, most reports had the aim of scaremongering about exorbitantly rising petrol and diesel prices.

By and large, most media outlets wrote about price increases of 38 to 40 cents for a litre of petrol, diesel or heating oil from 2027, and a price of 200 to 300 euros per tonne of CO2 was expected for CO2 emission certificates.

Now, a few days ago, Prof. Dr. Alexander Eisenkopf from the Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen has brought a completely different possibility into play. In the coming year, the fixed price phase in Germany’s national emissions trading will end and prices will move in a corridor of 55 to 65 euros.

Since the European Union has also built a market stability reserve into the EU ETS II for reasons of social compatibility and is aiming for a target price of 45 euros per tonne, at least at the beginning in 2027, Professor Eisenkopf sees a high probability that fuel prices in Germany could even fall slightly as a result of the falling prices for CO2.

Our scenario for the introduction of the EU ETS II initially predicts a high probability of very volatile prices until supply and demand settle into a realistic price corridor. In the long term, we also expect prices to rise, but a sharp increase to up to €300 per tonne is rather unlikely.

However, since the distributors of fossil heating and combustion fuels need a correspondingly profitable margin calculation, there is also the possibility that a higher price could be charged at petrol stations in the first few weeks until competitive prices prevail.

Based on our many years of experience in fundamental market analysis and chart analysis in other energy and commodity markets, particularly in the EU ETS I, we will be happy to assist you.

Last week, prices for emission rights in the EU ETS I continued to move up in an upward channel that began two weeks ago, supported by the market environment, and closed with a slight gain of 0.65% on a weekly basis despite profit-taking by institutional investors.

The EUA benchmark contract for December 2025 moved in a range of €69.59 to €74.23, but was stopped by a resistance line, which is currently slightly above the €74 mark. Should the market environment remain bullish, this barrier could be broken and the way towards €80 would be clear. If the resistance holds, the EUA could also fall back below the 70-euro mark.

This week, the Polish Wednesday auction is off again, which is why only 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the other four days, compared to 13,416,000 last week.

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

In the negotiations with the CDU and the SPD, the Green Party has managed to push through the idea that 1/10th, or 100 billion, of the exorbitant debt package , the exorbitant German debt package of 1,000,000,000,000.00 euros (one trillion euros), 1/10th, or 100 billion euros, will be invested in climate protection and climate neutrality in 2045 is to be written into the German constitution.

It is still far from certain whether the resolution on this mountain of debt will receive the necessary two-thirds majority in both the German Bundestag and the Bundesrat this week, as there could potentially be defectors in the ranks of the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens, and the majority will be conceivably narrow.

However, Manuel Frondel of the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the Ruhr University Bochum has determined that significantly higher costs for the economy, consumers and the state will be added to the 100 billion debt for five years of earlier climate neutrality compared to other EU states.

According to the study he led, Germany could avoid up to 750 billion euros in higher costs if it aligned its climate neutrality target with the other EU states‘ 2050 target, which in turn means that the other states’ target would cost up to 750 billion.

His argument is based on the assumption that abatement costs will rise sharply until 2045. Furthermore, this would not help the climate, because the EU Emission Allowances that would then be released would simply be bought up by companies in other countries, which would then be able to emit more greenhouse gases.

Last week, these EU Emission Allowances showed a gain of 3.4 per cent for the first time in five weeks, based on the weekly closing prices, and the December future closed just below the 71-euro mark.

The bullish sentiment was accompanied by a corresponding energy market environment, which benefited from the cool Central European temperatures, which, however, will rise noticeably again towards the end of the week.

A total of 13,416,000 EUA will be offered on the EEX this week on all five trading days, which represents an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous week.

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team