Author: advantag

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Berlin-based think tank Agora Energiewende has determined that the average German electricity price on the stock exchange could fall by up to 23 percent by 2030 if the federal government sticks to its planned expansion path for renewable energies.

Agora estimates that this would mean a reduction of 20 euros per megawatt hour for industry and consumers, provided that the expansion of wind and solar energy continues as stipulated in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG).

Accordingly, in addition to this relief, there would be scope for a climate allowance to ease the burden on households affected by CO₂ pricing. This is also supported by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as she recently stated in an interview with the Osnabrücker Zeitung. Otherwise, it would be difficult to achieve acceptance of CO₂ pricing in the EU ETS 2.

On Sunday night, the US entered the war between Israel and Iran and destroyed three underground nuclear enrichment facilities in a military operation.

Prices for fossil fuels rose significantly in some cases last week, and the volatile situation in the Middle East will continue to influence the markets this week.

Last week, however, the price of European emission allowances decoupled from the development of fossil fuels and ended the trading week down 3.9% on a weekly closing basis.

This week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs from the EU, Poland and Germany quotas will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days. This represents an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous week.

Instrument	13/06/25	20/06/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	75.94 EUR	72.97 EUR	-2.97 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	84.46 EUR	81.40 EUR	-3.06 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	54.56 GBP	51.00 GBP	-3.56 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	102.78 GBP	111.89 GBP	+9.11 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	70.22 USD	72.27 USD	+2.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1551 USD	1.1523 USD	-0.0028 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Israel’s military action against clearly defined targets in relation to Tehran’s efforts to produce radioactive materials suitable for use in nuclear weapons has received an expected backlash.

Market participants in the commodity and energy markets have reacted accordingly with regard to the possible impact on gas and oil production in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices rose by just under 10% on Friday before closing the week with a gain of 8.7%. Similar price movements were also observed for gas.

In the wake of this development, EU emission allowances (EUA) also rose to a daily high of EUR 76.75 in the benchmark contract for December 2025, ultimately closing the trading week with a gain of 3.3%.

The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and it is unclear whether it will escalate further or whether both parties will return to the negotiating table.

In any case, market participants in the commodity and energy markets will be keeping a close eye on developments in the conflict this week, which will have a corresponding impact on short-term price movements.

As the Polish auction is not taking place this Wednesday, a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig on the remaining trading days, representing an increase of 11.5% compared to the previous week.

Instrument	06/06/25	13/06/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	73.50 EUR	75.94 EUR	+2.44 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	81.73 EUR	84.46 EUR	+2.73 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	50.40 GBP	54.56 GBP	+4.16 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	97.66 GBP	102.78 GBP	+5.12 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	64.62 USD	70.22 USD	+5.60 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1394 USD	1.1551 USD	+0.0157 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week saw little in the way of fundamental news that moved the markets for emission allowances.

As a result, prices for European emission allowances continued to fluctuate within the range of around 70 to just under 74 euros that has been evident since the beginning of May.

Market participants remained cautious against the backdrop of the trade dispute triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Nevertheless, EUAs broke through an important technical resistance level last Friday and gained 4.4% on a weekly basis. Among other things, the 5.2% rise in the price of Brent crude oil and the 4.7% rise in the price of British gas compared with the previous week influenced prices.

As trading took place on the energy exchanges yesterday despite the public holiday, the start of the week was also bullish, with EUAs trading well above the €74 mark in the December 2025 benchmark contract.

Prices in the EU ETS 2 (EUA 2) are currently correlating relatively strongly in the December 2028 benchmark contract with EUAs of the same maturity, as no liquid trading has yet emerged there.

Due to Whit Monday, a total of 10,170,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX this week from Tuesday to Friday, 10.3% less than in the previous week.

Instrument	30/05/25	06/06/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.41 EUR	73.50 EUR	+3.09 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	78.46 EUR	81.73 EUR	+3.27 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	51.26 GBP	50.40 GBP	-0.86 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	93.29 GBP	97.66 GBP	+4.37 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	61.41 USD	64.62 USD	+3.21 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1348 USD	1.1394 USD	+0.0046 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Wednesday, the Japanese parliament passed a law requiring approximately 350 large companies to participate in the national Japanese emissions trading system, which will come into force in 2026.

Companies that emit at least 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, such as emitters from the steel and automotive industries, are affected by this. This means that approximately 60 per cent of Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions will be priced in line with the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).

A significant factor here is certainly the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will come into force in the EU next year and has already motivated China to extend emissions trading to other sectors.

The EU also decided last week to ease the CBAM. Smaller importers with goods that cause less than 50 tonnes of CO₂ in production will not be subject to the levy.

The price for one tonne of CO₂ or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases is based on the average weekly price of emission allowances in the EU ETS (EUA).

In the past trading week, EUAs fell by 1.6% on a weekly closing basis. In addition to the effects of Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policy, the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day from July onwards also put pressure on oil and gas prices.

This week, 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on four trading days on the European Energy Exchange, more than double the volume of the previous week, which was short due to public holidays.

In addition, national German emissions trading auctions will resume this week. Until the beginning of December, national emission allowances will be auctioned on Tuesdays and Thursdays on the EEX at a fixed price of 55.00 euros for the current calendar year 2025.

Furthermore, until 18 September 2025, allowances will still be offered under the 10% top-up option for the 2024 annual code at a price of €45.00 per nEZ.

We are also happy to assist you with additional purchases of 2024 allowances that exceed the 10% top-up rule.

Instrument	23/05/25	30/05/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.56 EUR	70.41 EUR	-1.15 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	81.03 EUR	78.46 EUR	-2.57 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	51.69 GBP	51.26 GBP	-0.43 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	98.93 GBP	93.29 GBP	-5.64 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	63.15 USD	61.41 USD	-1.74 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1364 USD	1.1348 USD	-0.0016 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced their intention to link their emissions trading systems (ETS). The linking of the UK and EU systems is intended to create a larger and more efficient market, which will reduce the costs of emissions reduction while increasing the effectiveness of the measures.

Linking the UK and EU emissions trading systems offers a number of advantages. A larger market increases liquidity and reduces price volatility, leading to more stable and predictable prices for emission allowances. This, in turn, gives companies greater planning certainty and facilitates investment in decarbonisation technologies.

By linking the systems, the UK ETS and the EU ETS can better coordinate their climate policies. This is particularly important at a time when international cooperation and ambitious measures are needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Close cooperation between the UK and the EU can also serve as a model for other countries and regions to link their emissions trading systems and create global markets for emission allowances, as is already the case between the Swiss trading system and the EU ETS.

In addition, trade barriers such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which the UK will also introduce in 2027, would be removed, benefiting both parties.

The UK and EU governments have announced that they will work closely together in the coming months to plan and implement the linking of the systems. This includes consultations with stakeholders, technical feasibility studies and the adaptation of the legal framework.

The prices of British and European emission allowances responded to this information with corresponding price gains, with UKA rising by 6% in the short term.

Following US President Trump’s announcement that he intends to impose tariffs on imports of goods from the EU from 1 June 2025, prices on the markets fell significantly and EU emission allowances also lost ground, dropping from a daily high of 73.00 euros to a daily low of 70.00 euros in the benchmark contract.

By the end of the trading day, the market uncertainty triggered once again by Donald Trump had subsided somewhat and the closing price recovered to 71.56 euros. On a weekly basis, the trading week ended with a moderate gain of 0.8%.

After a conversation that was certainly not particularly pleasant for Ms von der Leyen, Trump decided yesterday to postpone the tariffs on EU goods until 9 July.

Due to the public holiday, auctions at the EEX will only take place on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with a total volume of 5,318,000 EUAs.

Instrument	16/05/25	23/05/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.99 EUR	71.56 EUR	+0.57 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	79.16 EUR	81.03 EUR	+1.87 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	48.36 GBP	51.69 GBP	+3.33 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	96.12 GBP	98.93 GBP	+2.81 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	63.70 USD	63.15 USD	-0.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1164 USD	1.1364 USD	+0.0200 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team