Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (06/12/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

European greenhouse gas emission allowances rose a whopping 7.5% last week, even if they could not stay above the 80 euros per EUA mark, which was first conquered on Friday, at the weekly closing rate.

Another trigger was, despite the inconsistent energy price developments, information from a fund manager who still sees prices in the three-digit range in 2021. After the EUAs have already increased by a good 140% this year and have experienced a price increase of around 1,160% in the last five years, that would not be surprising, because an age-old stock exchange rule says: “the trend is your friend”.

For compliance buyers and portfolio managers, it is more difficult to answer the question of whether one should stock up at least part of the portfolio now or rather wait until there is a corresponding correction on the market.

From a technical point of view, the time would have come for the market to undertake a correction, which would have the first support in the area around 70 euros and then a little above the 60 euros mark.

In any case, the EU member states are currently extremely divided on how to react to this bull market, which makes short-term market intervention seem unlikely. However, statements from official sources alone could lead market participants to take short positions. The coming trading week will definitely remain interesting.

In the new trading week, a total of 11.4 million EUA will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX on all five bank working days, as will the next week. On Monday, December 20th, 2021, an auction of 2,542,500 EUAs will take place for the last time this year; on the same day is also the last trading day of ICE-EUA-December-2021-Futures.

The first auction in 2022 will not start until the second calendar week on January 10th, and a total of 9,291,000 EUAs will be auctioned on four days in the second week.

In the national German emissions trading system, the available trading days are also drawing to a close. During this and the next trading week, only four fixed price auctions will take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

If companies subject to the tax do not take part in these dates, they only have the chance to get national emission certificates (nEZ) on the secondary market (OTC / over the counter) this year.

At a price of EUR 25.00 you can only purchase nEZ if you have already purchased some by the end of the year – and then only 10% of this amount. After that, the nEZ costs 30.00 euros or you can try to get OTC pieces on the secondary market.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument26/11/2103/12/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)72.77 EUR78.23 EUR+5.46 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)72.78 EUR78.25 EUR+5.47 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)7.44 USD7.56 USD+0.12 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)8.68 USD8.92 USD+0.24 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)72.82 USD70.01 USD-2.81 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)25,00 EUR25,00 EUR0,00 EUR
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1316 USD1.1312 USD-0.0004 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. VCUs and VERs are average prices (CBL markets). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (29/11/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

In Germany, the coalition negotiations have come to an end and the new government consisting of the SPG, Greens and FDP, which will soon begin, wants to set clear accents in the area of ​​climate protection.

There should be a minimum price of 60 euros per ton of CO2 or its equivalent for greenhouse gas emissions and climate money, which should particularly benefit households with low incomes. These should also receive a one-off heating cost allowance.

The cost of CO2 certificates in national emissions trading should not be increased any further due to the already high energy prices.

Furthermore, the EEG surcharge is to be discontinued from 2023, which in particular should lower electricity prices and thus also serve electromobility.

The high prices for CO2 emissions alone make the generation of electricity from coal increasingly unprofitable and transition technologies such as gas will move into the focus of energy supply companies until the further expansion of renewable energies has progressed sufficiently.

From 2025, all newly installed heating systems in residential buildings are to be operated on the basis of at least 65% renewable energies.

Only when vehicles with internal combustion engines are phased out there should not be an end date in Germany, as is the case in many other markets. However, from 2023 only vehicles with a demonstrably positive climate effect will be funded, which can also travel at least 80 kilometers electrically, which is aimed at plug-in hybrids.

The market for EU emission rights reacted clearly bullish to the plans of the largest European economy and rallied on Thursday with a new all-time high of EUR 75.05.

Since the financial markets reacted very clearly to the new South African virus mutation and impending further lockdowns towards the end of the last week of trading, the EUA could not take this high-altitude flight with them until the end of the week, but closed with a plus of 3.41 euros confidently above the 70- Euro mark. At today’s start of trading, however, the EUA reached another all-time high, which is now at EUR 75.25.

In the national German emissions trading system, there are now six more dates in the next three weeks, on Tuesdays and Thursdays, at which companies subject to the tax can still buy regularly at a price of 25 euros.

If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact our consultants.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument19/11/2126/11/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)69.36 EUR72.77 EUR+3.41 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)99.36 EUR72.78 EUR+3.42 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)4.78 USD4.78 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)13.69 USD13.69 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)78.43 USD72.82 USD-5.61 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1282 USD1.1316 USD+0.0034 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (22/11/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

In one of the countless TV discussions on the current handling of the Corona pandemic, a participant expressed herself with disarming logic. She began by emphasising how important and correct the demands were that all people must now join forces to oppose any further spread of the virus. But then she added that we must also oppose global warming with the same determination and with immediate, courageous measures. There should be no distinction in importance and urgency.

In this context, the magazine “WirtschaftsWoche” reported last weekend on an agreement between the coalition partners to also abandon gas as an energy source in Germany by 2045 at the latest. After the phase-out of nuclear energy and coal, the renunciation of gas firing, which is seen as a bridging technology, would mean a great challenge for the economy and property owners. However, the CO2 targets in Germany could not be achieved otherwise, coalition circles said. In the spirit of courageous and determined action, it would now be desirable for the industry to look for alternatives with all the means at its disposal instead of reflexively taking a defensive stance.

In the meantime, the carbon market has staged a fulminant rally, breaking through technical resistances that only a short time ago had the sound of dreams of the future. In today’s early trading, the price even exceeded the 70-euro mark, which is significant both from a chart-technical and a market-psychological point of view.

In national emissions trading, the Leipzig energy exchange EEX, in coordination with the German Energy Agency, has announced three additional sales dates for this year, namely for the 9th, 14th and 16th of December. These additional dates have become necessary because apparently far too few companies have taken care of the procurement of the national emission allowances so far for the purchases to be processed in time. This concession is intended to prevent companies from purchasing allowances in the coming year in order to fulfil their obligation to surrender in 2021, as these will then automatically cost 30 euros instead of the previous 25 euros. As a member of the EEX, we will be happy to assist you as an intermediary in the timely procurement.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument12/11/2119/11/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)59.38 EUR69.36 EUR+6.09 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)59.39 EUR69.36 EUR+6.09 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)4.78 USD4.78 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)13.69 USD13.69 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)82.26 USD78.43 USD-3.63 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1569 USD1.1282 USD-0.0197 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (15/11/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The 26th World Climate Conference in Glasgow came to an end on Saturday after prolongation.

This time, as expected, only resolutions were passed, the content of which could be supported by all participating states, which is the ultimate problem of such conferences.

On Saturday, a final declaration was drawn up, which all states have signed up to. In particular, the focus was on phasing out energy generation from coal. A special request was made to abolish the inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels. The aim is to create a new economic model and to achieve the Paris goal of increasing global warming by a maximum of 1.5°C.

Experts and climate protectors are extremely skeptical of this and see a warming of 2.4°C by the end of the century as much more realistic if the current timetable is adhered to.

In addition to phasing out coal, other focal points were higher climate targets and financial support for developing countries. In addition, it was decided to help the developing countries, which are hardest hit, with adaptation.

Germany has also joined the “Global Methane Pledge” and is committed to reducing methane gas emissions, which are particularly relevant for the climate in the short term, by 30% by the end of the decade.

Last but not least, 24 states and several car manufacturers have decided not to sell any cars with internal combustion engines from 2040, in the leading sales markets even from 2035. Germany is not one of them and if there is no radical rethinking here in the coming years, the car manufacturers who continue to rely on the internal combustion engine will face fundamental existential problems.

It remains to be seen whether the international community of almost 200 participating states will actually manage to implement the measures on its own. However, this will only happen by channeling the flow of money in the direction of decarbonization and high prices for greenhouse gas emissions, but it will only be successful if social aspects are taken into account.

In the past week, the technicians in the market for EU emission rights prevailed again and let the price rise by almost four percent on the basis of the weekly closing price.

In addition to the coming Tuesday and Thursday, another five fixed price auctions will take place on the EEX at an issue price of 25 euros in German national emissions trading system. So if you are one of the distributors of fossil fuels in Germany, you should hurry now, because they can only make purchases on the Leipzig Energy Exchange until December 7th, 2021 at the latest.

We would be happy to assist you and, as a member of EEX, procure the required number of national emission certificates (NEZ) for you safely and conveniently.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument05/11/2112/11/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)59.38 EUR63.27 EUR+3.89 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)59.39 EUR63.27 EUR+3.88 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)4.78 USD4.78 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)13.69 USD13.69 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)82.26 USD82.06 USD-0.20 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1569 USD1.1479 USD-0.0090 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (08/11/2021)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The first week of the World Climate Conference in Glasgow (COP26) is over and, as usual, opinions on what has been achieved so far are widely divided. A decision to limit methane emissions and a declaration on halting deforestation are among the notable highlights of the negotiations so far. Climate experts around the world never get tired of calculating how the announcements and adjustments made so far would affect the achievement of the Paris climate goals if strictly implemented. In this context, the International Energy Agency (ETA) and the University of Melbourne, for example, see some light at the end of the tunnel, as they all agree that the temperature increase should be limited to less than two degrees.

Of course, these are forecasts based on declarations of intent. It was, after all, an essential part of the Paris Agreement that nations should be allowed to decide for themselves what they approve and when they implement it to contribute their share to the goals. They now seem to be within reach, but what is decisive is the actual effort to finally reach the end of the tunnel.

Hardly any other issue illustrates this as clearly as the phase-out of coal production. In the public perception, this seems to be a kind of currency by which one can read off what progress is being made. This is certainly neither right nor fair, but it makes obvious that explanations and decision-making aids are urgently needed for a topic that is also historically so incredibly complex.

At the beginning of the last trading week, after a longer, stable sideways movement, there was again a significant correction on the carbon market. Important technical signals were broken through, but the downward trend was stopped at the 57-euro mark. The second half of the week was then marked by a nervous battle for the 60-euro line. This resulted in a slight plus on a weekly basis.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument29/10/2105/11/21Change
EUA (Spot-Market)58.69 EUR59.38 EUR+0.69 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)58.71 EUR59.39 EUR+0.68 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)4.78 USD4.78 USD+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)13.69 USD13.69 USD+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)83.69 USD82.26 USD-1.43 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1561 USD1.1569 USD+0.0008 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH