Dear Sir or Madam,
The US President’s often-suspected unpredictability often makes him very predictable.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Donald Trump made the 180-degree turn we predicted in our last market report and withdrew the threatened tariffs. In doing so, he once again solved a problem he himself had caused.
However, his erratic approach has caused great damage to transatlantic relations between the US and Europe due to the rapid decline in trust.
Meanwhile, unexpected developments are taking place in the European Union. In Germany, there is constant talk of the ‘firewall’ between the established parties and the AfD; in Brussels, the Greens and the Left Party have now joined forces with the AfD to put the Mercosur agreement on hold. And this at a time when Europe urgently needs new trade facilitation measures, as it must develop alternatives to the US.
After a year of Trump in office, the financial and energy markets did not react as strongly to his tariff threats last week as they did at the beginning of his term. In 2025, EUAs in the current benchmark contract fell from €86.99 on 30 January 2025 to a low of €61.69 on 9 April 2025, a drop of 25.3%.
Last week, EUAs opened at a weekly high of €91.30 on Monday and fell to a weekly low of €83.98 the following day. After Trump’s appearance in Davos, market participants relaxed again and the weekly closing price of €88.40 showed a decline of only 4.1%.
This means that EUAs are once again moving within the sideways-upward trend channel, and provided there are no further escalations from Washington, this trend channel should continue to apply.
This week, the Polish Wednesday auction doesn’t take place, which means that a total of 9,230,500 emission allowances will be auctioned on the EEX on the remaining days of the week, representing a decrease of 14.2% compared to the previous week.
| Instrument | 16/01/26 | 23/01/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-26-Future) | 92.04 EUR | 88.40 EUR | -3.64 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 75.05 EUR | 76.71 EUR | +1.66 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-26-Future (UK)) | 71.35 GBP | 68.32 GBP | -3.03 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future) | 75.80 GBP | 77.32 GBP | +1.52 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future) | 62.10 USD | 63.35 USD | +1.25 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1599 USD | 1.1829 USD | +0.0230 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team