Dear Sir or Madam,
In 2024, Germany emitted 4.4 million tons of CO2 or its equivalents in other greenhouse gases (CO2e) more than would have been permitted under the European Climate Protection Regulation.
The goal of the Climate Protection Regulation is European climate neutrality by 2050, with an initial interim step being a 40% reduction in all emissions in the EU by 2030 compared to 2005, the start of EU emissions trading.
As Germany still has a lot of catching up to do in the building and transport sectors, national emissions trading (nEHS) was introduced in 2021 with the Fuel Emissions Trading Act, which is set to replace the fixed price phase for the first time next year with a trading margin of between €55 and €65, and will be replaced by the new EU Emissions Trading System 2 (EU ETS2).
Last week, the Federal Environment Agency published a partial report on an analysis of the implementation of the price corridor in the nEHS in 2026. The Öko Institute and Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI were commissioned to carry out this analysis.
The specific aim was to clarify the issue of the fixed price phase, namely whether continuing the fixed price phase in 2026 would make sense from an economic perspective and whether the administrative effort involved in changing the system for just one year would be justified.
The scientists came to the conclusion that it was likely that the obligated companies would calculate with 65 euros in the sense of conservative hedging and pass these prices on to their customers.
Ultimately, the study concluded that continuing the fixed price phase for one year in 2026 would make sense from an economic, distributional policy, and administrative perspective and should definitely be considered. The expected shortage in the nEHS and EU ETS2 as well as modelling results on expected prices would argue in favour of a fixed price at the upper end of the price corridor of €65 per nEZ26.
The likelihood of the fixed price phase continuing at a price of €65 per ton of CO2 in the coming year has increased accordingly as a result of the study’s findings.
Prices in the EU ETS1 have been noticeably bullish over the past week, as market participants are focused on the end of the submission deadline for 2024.
After overcoming technical resistance, EUAs rose by 4.2% based on weekly closing prices and closed above the €76 mark in the December 2025 benchmark contract, where the upward trend stopped at another technical resistance line located in this area.
If the EUAs overcome this, for which there are good reasons, the next relevant technical resistance would be just below the €82 mark. If the current resistance proves too strong, the price would find its next support lines in the range around €74.00, €72.50, and €70.95.
The Leipzig-based EEX is offering four auctions this week with a total of 11,495,000 EUAs, which represents a 15.8% decline in auction volume compared to last week.
UPCOMING DATES
| 18/09/2025 | Last auction date for national emission allowances (nEZ24) on the EEX with the year identifier 2024 at a price of €45.00 |
| 30/09/2025 | End of the submission period for German national emission allowances (nEZ24) for year 2024 |
| 30/09/2025 | End of the submission period for European emission allowances (EUA/EUAA) for the year 2024 |
| 04/12/2025 | Last auction for German national emission allowances in 2025 (nEZ25) |
| 15/12/2025 | Last auction for European emission allowances (EUA) in 2025 |
| 07/01/2026 | First auction for European emission allowances (EUA) in 2026 |
| Instrument | 29/08/25 | 05/09/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-25-Future) | 72.53 EUR | 76.04 EUR | +3.05 EUR |
| EUA 2 (December-28-Future) | 88.24 EUR | 89.64 EUR | +1.00 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 52.19 GBP | 56.12 GBP | +2.98 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 91.78 GBP | 87.14 GBP | +0.75 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future) | 66.77 USD | 65.11 USD | -1.78 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1720 USD | 1.1719 USD | +0.0034 USD |
(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team
