Tag: Emissionshandel

Dear Sir or Madam,

The US government’s tariffs on almost all countries around the globe and the counter-tariffs announced by China last Friday have turned the financial markets deep red in the past week.

The Japanese Nikkei Index lost 7.30% last week, the DAX 7.24% and the Dow Jones 7.41%, with Friday alone accounting for 5.50%. The US technology index NASDAQ Composite was particularly hard hit, falling 8.55%, last Friday’s announcement of the Chinese counter-tariffs led to a loss of 5.82%.

In view of the current market situation, it is difficult to make a clear forecast for the coming weeks. Future market developments will depend heavily on geopolitical events and the decisions of central banks.

Even the US government’s special adviser, Tesla boss Elon Musk, spoke out in favour of abolishing all tariffs between the US and Europe, thus taking a clear stand against Donald Trump’s policies.

Since the last-named is extremely erratic and protests against his policies are visibly increasing in the US, it cannot be ruled out that he will make another U-turn in the not too distant future, which would lead to a corresponding counter-reaction by the financial markets.

And the commodity markets have also weakened considerably due to concerns about the global economy. Last week, Brent crude lost 8.69%, UK gas lost 6.67% and EU ETS I emission allowances fell by 7.24% on a weekly basis.

Depending on how the situation surrounding US tariffs and possible EU countermeasures develops, the extremely nervous financial markets and, consequently, the commodity and energy markets will move in the coming weeks.

For EUAs, this means that prices will also be restrained and that it looks like a good opportunity for companies subject to the levy to procure at least part of the required quantities of certificates. Because should the chaos created by Trump subside, with him sending signals of détente and celebrating a ‘deal’ for himself, corresponding counterreactions will not be long in coming on the markets.

This week, 3,245,500 EUAs from the EU will be auctioned off on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, and 1,607,000 from Germany’s quota will be auctioned off on Friday.

Instrument	28/03/25	04/04/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	68.80 EUR	63.82 EUR	-4.98 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0,00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	44.59 GBP	43.28 GBP	-1.31 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	104.98 GBP	97.98 GBP	-7.00 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	69.62 USD	63.57 USD	-6.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0829 USD	1.0964 USD	+0.0135 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant increase in demand for electricity over the next three years. Global electricity consumption is expected to rise by four percent annually until 2027, due in particular to increased use in industrial production, the growing electrification of the transport sector and the significantly higher energy demand of data centres and artificial intelligence.

These are also important topics for the new German government, because a stable energy supply at internationally competitive conditions for companies, even in times of decarbonisation, will remain of central importance for Germany as an industrial location.

The right-wing conservative government of our neighbours in the Netherlands wants to build so-called Small Modular Reactors (SMR), mini nuclear power plants distributed throughout the country, including in the immediate vicinity of the German border. While large nuclear power plants have a capacity of more than 1,000 megawatts, SMRs are in the range of 300 MW.

Now, in Gelderland, which borders directly on the German Lower Rhine, several possible locations along the rivers in the area of Arnhem, Nijmegen, Tiel and Zaltbommel are being considered. The rivers there would have sufficient water to cool the SMR at all times. The first protests by local residents are now emerging.

However, the construction of these small nuclear power plants is also expected to take at least five years before they can be connected to the grid; the final decision on the location is not expected before 2027.

In the past trading week, EU emission rights suffered significant losses again in a weak energy environment, losing 7.3% based on the weekly closing prices. However, on both Thursday and Friday, a support line in the area around 72.50 curbed a further fall towards 70.

If this support holds in the current week as well, a recovery would be conceivable, provided that the entire energy environment also develops in this direction. Otherwise, the next support would be the 200-day line of the December 25 benchmark future at the current 70.98, the next technical resistance upwards in the area around 75 euros.

Due to the regular absence of the Polish auction on Wednesday, a total of 11,343,500 emission rights will be auctioned on all other EEX carbon trading days this week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	14/02/25	21/02/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	79.75 EUR	73.90 EUR	-5.85 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	46.71 GBP	40.66 GBP	-6.05 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	125.03 GBP	117.13 GBP	-7.90 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	71.87 USD	71.46 USD	-0.41 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0492 USD	1.0461 USD	-0.0031 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the German Bundestag passed the amendment to the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act, or TEHG for short. Now the reform only has to pass the Bundesrat, which is considered highly likely.

For the first time, shipping will now be gradually included in emissions trading. While in 2024 it was only 40% of emissions, this year it is already 70% and next year 100% of greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition, there are changes in the aviation sector, where the total emissions will be reduced more significantly by 2030, and other effects, such as condensation trails, will be included in the pricing due to their impact on the climate.

Emissions from waste incinerators, on the other hand, are to be regulated by the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) until 2027.

And with regard to the EU border adjustment mechanism, this year it remains only with the reporting requirement, only from next year onwards payments will be due in the CBAM (Carbon Borderline Adjustment Mechanism) for iron, steel, aluminium, cement, hydrogen and fertilisers, which will be based on prices in the EU ETS.

Due to the fact that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had brought up the possibility of linking the British emissions trading system with the European EU ETS, prices for British emission rights rose by a whopping 30.4% last week, and EU emission rights also recorded a further increase of 2.8% under this sign.

After an interim high of 84.50 on Thursday, the benchmark contract December 2024 fell back moderately to close the week just below the 84-euro mark.

In this trading week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig on all five trading days, an increase of 2,072,500 EUAs or 18.3%.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	24/01/25	31/01/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	8.67 EUR	83.93 EUR	+2.26 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	35.12 GBP	45.81 GBP	+10.69 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	116.76 GBP	121.95 GBP	+5.19 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	73.31 USD	71.48 USD	-1.83 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0272 USD	1.0494 USD	+0.0222 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Today, Donald Trump begins his second term in the White House in Washington D.C. as President of the United States of America, and he has already announced his intention to end various climate and environmental protection laws. It remains to be seen what will actually be implemented. It will certainly be entertaining when you remember his first term in office and now he also has billionaire Elon Musk in tow and you instinctively wonder who is the boss here. Since both of them openly live out their narcissism, there are already bets on how long they will remain ‘best friends’.

Last Wednesday, the German Bundestag held a session in which the Energy Committee discussed the adaptation of the German Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act (TEHG) to European guidelines (EU ETS II). The experts welcomed the adaptation, but called for more conformity with the EU.

Till Jenssen from the German Association of Cities emphasised the necessity of a sufficiently high CO2 price and targeted climate funding to relieve the burden on consumers. Michael Pahle from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research called the amendment a ‘historic step’ and highlighted Germany’s pioneering role.

The company representatives called for more planning security. Martin Kaspar from the Thüga-Aktiengesellschaft and Carsten Rolle from the Federation of German Industries emphasised the urgency of a rapid implementation of the amendment. Maximilian Rinck from the BDEW also advocated a rapid implementation of the changes.

Another point was the planned inclusion of waste incinerators in the emissions trading. Nadine Schartz from the Landkreistag (German County Association) and Holger Thärichen from the German Association of Local Utilities rejected this and called for a uniform decision throughout Europe.

Prices in the EU ETS I were noticeably bullish again last week, closing the week up 5.9% and just missing the 80-euro mark. During the course of Friday, this level was briefly exceeded with a high of 80.50, but by the end of trading, the price of the December EUA futures contract was unable to hold above the 80 mark.

This week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be offered at the European Energy Exchange EEX in the auctions, which will take place on all five trading days.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	10/01/25	17/01/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	74.85 EUR	79.26 EUR	+4.41 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	34.88 GBP	31.54 GBP	-3.34 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	112.56 GBP	117.96 GBP	+5.60 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	74.27 USD	73.80 USD	-0.47 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0242 USD	1.0272 USD	+0.0030 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

On Wednesday, an expert hearing on the TEHG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act) will take place in the German Bundestag, which will focus on the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS II in 2027 for the building and transport sectors and the associated transition of national emissions trading to European trading.

In this context, at the end of November, the Bundesrat (Federal Council) had submitted a proposal to auction national emission certificates at a fixed price of EUR 65.00 per tonne on the EEX in 2026 as well. The current BEHG (Fuel Emissions Trading Act) stipulates that the fixed-price phase will expire next year and auctions should take place in a price range of EUR 55.00 to EUR 65.00.

Since the obligated companies would have to submit emission reports for EU ETS II by 30 April 2025 in order to implement the EU requirements, this deadline has now been suspended because the TEHG amendment has not yet been adopted. A new deadline is unknown at the moment.

Last year, the German government received a total of €18.5 billion (previous year: €18.4 billion) through CO2 emissions trading. These revenues are channelled entirely into the KTF (Climate and Transformation Fund). Auction revenues in the EU ETS amounted to EUR 5.5 billion (previous year: EUR 7.7 billion), while national emissions trading (nEHS) generated EUR 13 billion (previous year: EUR 10.7 billion).

The decline in the EU ETS is mainly due to the significantly lower average price of EUR 65.00 (2023: EUR 83.66) for emission allowances. The increase in revenue in the nEHS was due, on the one hand, to the rise in prices from EUR 30.00 to EUR 45.00 and, on the other hand, to the reduction in the number of emission rights to 85 million in 2024 (previous year: 92 million EUA).

Last week, prices in the EU ETS were 1.4% lower than in the previous week, due to profit-taking after the rise in the previous weeks and the weakening market environment in the energy sector.

After the auctions on the EEX started again last week, 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned this week, which corresponds to an increase of 11.5% compared to the previous week.

Dear readers, up to now, we have indicated the prices for wholesale quantities of voluntary emission rights (VER) in our stock market prices listed below. However, as these have proven to be of little significance in the real trading of CO2 certificates, we will now show you the general market environment. Instead, you will now find the price development of British emission rights (UKA / United Kingdom Allowances) and gas (UK natural gas) alongside the prices for Brent Crude Oil and the exchange rate for the euro to the US dollar, which have been shown for years.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	03/01/25	10/01/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	75.94 EUR	74.85 EUR	-1.09 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	36.61 GBP	34.88 GBP	-1.73 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	117.34 GBP	112.56 GBP	-4.78 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	72.97 USD	74.27 USD	+1.33 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0307 USD	1.0242 USD	-0.0065 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team