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Dear Sir or Madam,

In November 2011, the European emission allowances were the last to show a double-digit number before the decimal point, despite the expectations of the majority of analysts who saw significantly lower average prices for the first half of 2018.

Last Wednesday, the EUA briefly climbed above the mark of 10 euros, but then gave back slightly more than 40 cents and closed at 9.60 euros in December Future. The spot market also demanded more than 10 euros for an emission allowance.

Supported by a stronger energy complex, the EUA closed on a weekly basis with a plus of 29 cents, which was about the gain of the week before.

An end to the Central and Eastern European cold period is not in sight, despite the upcoming meteorological start of spring in the coming week, which could also influence the prices this week.

If this is enough to bring the prices again above the 10-euro mark, will be seen. Currently, however, the old stock market rule proves once again that the bull market is nourishing the bull market. Signs of a downturn in the emission rights, at least technically is not recognizable at the moment.

However, the demand for the auctions this week and the further development of the energy market could trigger a trend reversal at any time.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-02-16	2018-02-09	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	9.50 EUR	9.21 EUR	+0.29 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	9.52 EUR	9.23 EUR	+0.29 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.18 EUR	0.17 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	64.58 USD	62.83 USD	+1.75 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2404 USD	1.2251 USD	+0.0153 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The OPEC expects a global economic growth of 3.8% and therefore expects demand for crude oil to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day to 98.6 million barrels. The increase in non-OPEC-controlled states is also estimated at 1.4 million barrels per day.

Nonetheless, oil prices have plummeted due to reports that US crude oil production has risen to more than 10 million barrels a day, and the US plans to become the world’s largest crude oil producer by the end of the year, thanks to Donald Trump’s policies.

Since the oil is not only produced, but also consumed and thus releases huge amounts of greenhouse gases worldwide, some observers may doubt whether the international community will succeed even marginally, the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C to reach.

Prices for European CO2 emission allowances again surpassed the nine-euro mark due to increased demand at the auctions last week, closing on a weekly basis with a plus of 3 percent at 9.21 euros / ton. The start of the week was clearly bullish; the EUA are currently in the range of around 9.50 euros and seem to want to find their way towards the 10-euro mark.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-02-02	2018-02-02	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	9.21 EUR	8.93 EUR	+0.28 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	9.23 EUR	8.96 EUR	+0.27 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.17 EUR	0.18 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	62.83 USD	68.37 USD	-5.54 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2251 USD	1.2456 USD	-0.0205 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The German Federal Environment Agency reported slightly improved levels of nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter and ozone pollution in Germany’s cities last year, not least due to local measures following the discovery of the diesel scandal. This may certainly be true, but 2017 was also characterized by a higher wind intensity, which should also have had influence on this.

Even today in Berlin between the party leaders of the CDU, CSU and SPD is being negotiated. So far, the lobbyists in the coal industry have been pleased, as the German climate target was quickly tipped and instead of 40% greenhouse gas reduction by 2020 compared to 1990, the values ​​of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change should be sufficient for the coming decades. In return, the possible new government wants to set statutory climate protection targets for individual sectors such as agriculture, energy or transport. This should not lead to driving bans of diesel vehicles, which makes sceptical in the face of impending complaints from the EU.

At least, with the installation of 100,000 charging stations for electric cars by 2020 and a lower company car taxation, the politicians wants to improve the air quality in cities. Public transport should also be electrified more. At the same time, the possible future government wants to make traveling by train more attractive, with the observance of the timetables would be an essential step from the perspective of many travellers.

It remains to be seen if the supporter of a renewed grand coalition will receive a sufficient majority in the final SPD member survey. Of course, a member survey is a democratic matter. On the other hand, however, it makes clear how the party’s self-confidence is when it questions the decision-making authority of the management staff. Surveys suggest that a new election would probably lead to new lows for the SPD, because who will elect a party, which must be forced to exercise government responsibility.

However, the market for CO2 emission rights will be highly anticipating the upcoming political developments.

Falling energy prices and weaker auction results have put pressure on European emission rights prices over the past week, leading to week-end rates below the nine-euro mark.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-02-02	2018-01-28	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	8.93 EUR	9.06 EUR	-0.13 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	8.96 EUR	9.09 EUR	-0.13 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.18 EUR	0.17 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	68.37 USD	70.05 USD	-1.68 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2456 USD	1.2428 USD	+0.0028 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH

 

 

 

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

ECB President Mario Draghi was not concerned about the rally of the euro against the US dollar since mid-December last week. Since then, the European common currency has increased at around seven cents, but Draghi is by no means using this as an opportunity to practice relaxation exercises with regard to the south European interest and bond policy. Last week alone, the euro gained two cents.

The oil price continued to be bullish last week, closing above the $ 70 weekly line for the first time since summer 2014.

In this market environment, the buyer side also dominated the market for European CO2 emission rights and the EUA set a six-year high at 9.56 euros per ton of CO2e last Wednesday. At the end of the week, the price dropped off again due to profit-taking, but closed comfortably above the nine-euro mark.

The fact, that prices for emission allowances did not yet exert any significant steering effect is confirmed by the fact, that greenhouse gas emissions in Germany once again rose by 2.6 million tonnes in 2016 compared with the previous year. As the Federal Environment Agency reports, emissions from the transport sector in particular have risen again and are now above the 1990 level, which causes almost 167 million CO2. 96% of this is road traffic. This does not surprise, however, when one sees the increasing number of so-called SUVs, which are apparently now similarly popular among office workers, as in forestry workers.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-01-26	2018-01-19	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	9.06 EUR	8.73 EUR	+0.90 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	9.09 EUR	8.76 EUR	+0.90 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.17 EUR	0.17 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	70.05 USD	68.79 USD	-1.00 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2428 USD	1.2221 USD	+0.0035 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH

 

 

 

 

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

The probability, that a big coalition between the conservative German parties CDU, CSU and social party SPD will continue after the election of the special party congress, rose up, although only 56% of the delegates voted for negotiations with CDU/CSU as a more likely alternative to new elections. That might be true, because the one or other elector could ask, why he should vote for the SPD, when they are not willing to take governmental responsibility.

However, the result of yesterdays election brought a government participation of the Green party more away, what will not advance the turning away from coal power.

The already bullish European market for carbon emission certificates used the bigger growing probability at the end of last week for a positive vote of the election to move leave the eight-Euro-level behind and moved with a 10% surplus on weekly basis into the nine-Euro-direction.

Last time, as EU-emission allowances has been above nine Euro was in November 2012.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-01-19	2018-01-12	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	8.73 EUR	7.83 EUR	+0.90 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	8.76 EUR	7.86 EUR	+0.90 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.17 EUR	0.17 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	68.79 USD	69.79 USD	-1.00 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2221 USD	1.2186 USD	+0.0035 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH