News

Dear Sir or Madam,

According to a report by the German magazine Spiegel, the climate protection law, which already appears to be less ambitious in its original form, should be further weakened. Among other things, no national target for CO2 reduction is planned for 2040 and the formulation of being greenhouse gas-neutral by 2050 has been weakened by the fact that this should only be “pursued” without obligation. In the end, all that remains is for Germany to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Furthermore, the Federal Government is now to be authorized, without the consent of the Federal Council, to decide on changes in the annual emission levels by means of a statutory ordinance. On 06.12.2019 the law should now be decided by the Bundesrat and the Bundestag. Robert Habeck of the Greens had already announced after the launch of the package to want to enforce improvements, especially in the starting price of the certificates, which should cost according to ideas of the grand coalition at the beginning only 10 € and thus have no meaningful control effect.

Prices for European CO2 allowances also fell again in the past week, reflecting stronger global economic risks and Brexit, which is likely to be over at the end of the month. From a technical point of view, the EUAs are now close to an important support line, which has its origins in the second quarter of 2018. They should not break this sustainable on a weekly basis, otherwise the market would be a bear case in the longer term. A total of 16,584,000 certificates will be auctioned at the Leipzig EEX this week, including 801,500 EUAA for aviation. In the coming week, there will be only 11,068,000 EUAs.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	27/09/2019	04/10/2019	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	25.29 EUR	22.94 EUR	-2.35 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	25.30 EUR	23.01 EUR	-2.29 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.21 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	61.04 USD	58.40 USD	-2.64 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0938 USD	1.0976 USD	+0.0038 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week a special report was published by the IPCC, which covers in particular the situation of the oceans and the cryosphere, ie the frozen parts of the earth system.

Oceans cover 715 of the Earth’s surface and contain 97% of the water of our planet. 10% of the land is still covered by glaciers and ice sheets. According to the IPCC report, global warming has led to a large-scale shrinkage of this cryosphere due to mass losses of ice and glaciers as well as increased permafrost temperatures.

Since 1970, the oceans have continued to warm unabated, absorbing more than 90% of global warming. Since 1993, the speed has doubled here. As a result, the oceans acidify quickly, which leads to loss of oxygen even in deeper waters. There is also an increase in sea level.

All of which leads to much stronger storms and extreme weather events, which affects the global availability of drinking water and threatens food security increasingly. Whole peoples will thereby lose their habitat and their nutritional bases; coastal cities are facing massive problems. This will eventually lead to significant population resettlements and migrations.

Significant global efforts, according to scientists, are needed to keep global warming below 2 ° C, ideally below 1.5 ° C. This realization has now also prompted Russia to join the Paris Agreement on Climate Change since large parts of the global permafrost are on Russian territory.

A global price for greenhouse gas emissions is therefore urgently needed and must be implemented as soon as possible. The odds increase with every extreme weather event.

Prices for European CO2 emission allowances also fell over the past week due to the energy market environment and fears of a slowdown in the global economy, although a smaller auction volume will be auctioned in Leipzig this week with 11 million EUAs.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	20/09/2019	27/09/2019	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	26.52 EUR	25.29 EUR	-1.23 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	26.53 EUR	25.30 EUR	-1.23 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.21 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	64.66 USD	61.04 USD	-3.62 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1017 USD	1.0938 USD	-0.0056 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

This afternoon, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel will speak in front of the UN World Climate Change Conference in New York, attended by other heads of state. US President Trump, who is not known to prioritize knowledge, prefers to attend a religious event that is about faith.

The Chancellor also has the German “Climate Protection Plan 2030”, which should include the area and traffic. For this, a national CO2 certificate trade should be the controlling instrument. The prices are to start in 2021 with 10 euros per ton and by 2025 to 35 euros. From 2026, a maximum price of 60 euros per tonne should initially apply.

Calculated on the German consumer this will burden the driver by three cents in 2021. At a consumption of six liters that is 18 cents per 100 kilometers. This difference can be seen at many gas stations already in one day by natural fluctuations. Where there should be a steering effect remains the secret of the grand coalition. Also, why you want to increase the commuter flat rate by 5 cents per kilometer from the 20th kilometer to 35 cents, because here has the frequent traveler at 100 kilometers of commuting an advantage of four euros, which he can deduct more of his tax burden. At a tax rate of 30%, the discharge is thus 1.20 euros and a burden of emissions trading of 0.18 euros. The one who emits so much CO2, gets as a reward for more than a euro of the grand coalition for 100 kilometers. Although the train journey will now be about 10% cheaper, most commuters hardly convinced. And the cities and feeder roads will continue to be clogged with an upward trend.

For this reason, not only the opposition parties are disappointed, but also all those who have taken a courageous step towards climate neutrality. However, Robert Habeck of the German Greens wants to take the initiative in the Bundesrat and bring about corrections.

Although the fright of the attacks in the Middle East on the oil refineries has not yet been digested, the price of crude oil has returned to normal and has fallen back to the end of the week after rising by a fifth. What remained was a little more than four dollars or just over 7%. In the wake of this, the emission rights also increased to over 27 euros at the beginning of the week last week, but concluded at the end of the trading week only with a moderate increase of a plentiful half percentage point. This week, 15,782,500 EUAs from the EU, Germany and Poland are looking for their customers at the Leipzig EEX.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	13/09/2019	20/09/2019	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	26.33 EUR	26.52 EUR	+0.19 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	26.38 EUR	26.53 EUR	+0.15 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.21 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	60.26 USD	64.66 USD	+4.40 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1073 USD	1.1017 USD	-0.0056 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Next Friday, the German grand coalition of CDU and SPD wants to present their concept for less CO2 emissions. On this day demonstrations of “Fridays for Future” as well as other climate protection alliances take place in many cities in Germany and worldwide.

In particular, the steering instruments are under discussion here, with either a fixed carbon tax or the more flexible national emission allowance trading in particular for the transport sector and the real estate sector. Among other things, negotiations will continue this week on climate-friendly heating, more attractive public transport and electromobility.

The fact that electromobility in particular can make a major contribution is shown by a calculation by the German motor vehicle trade magazine “Krafthand”, which has determined exactly how much electricity is needed to supply six liters of diesel – a value which a normal diesel car costs on average for 100 kilometers needed. So if you include oil production, transport to the refineries, processing there and transport to the gas station, you can get six liters of diesel to 42 KWh of electricity without driving a kilomaster. With 42 kWh of electricity, for example, you can drive more than 300 kilometers with, for example, the BMW i3 electric car. And that at green power entirely without CO2 emissions.

Following the attacks on two oil rigs in Saudi Arabia this past weekend, the price of crude oil rose sharply this morning, rising in some cases more than 10% against Friday’s close. The EUA futures have also benefited from the fact that they exceeded the € 27 mark at the start of trading. The development of the oil price could continue to cause movement in the energy markets and also in the CO2 prices this week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	06/09/2019	13/09/2019	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	25.06 EUR	26.33 EUR	+1.27 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	25.08 EUR	26.38 EUR	+1.30 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.21 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	61.63 USD	60.26 USD	-1.37 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1026 USD	1.1073 USD	+0.0047 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH