Dear Sir or Madam,
Last Thursday, the financial markets information service Bloomberg reported that there is a possibility that EU officials could consider proposing restrictions for speculators as part of the next renewal of the European financial market directive MiFID. Position limits should limit the driving force of speculative investors. The last major amendment did not come into force until 2018 with MiFID II and has classified European emission certificates such as EUAs, EUAAs and CERs as financial instruments.
If the possibly deliberate spread of this information were to put a stop to the strongly bullish market, the culprits would only have had extremely short-term success. Although the price fell to a value just above 37 euros on Friday morning, market participants showed what they thought of such a threat over the course of Friday and pushed prices to a new all-time high of 40.25 euros in the December future
The rise in the price of the EUAs was accompanied by a further significant increase in the price of crude oil, which has recaptured the mark of 60 US dollars – a value that was last seen in January 2020. And that despite the fact, that the International Energy Agency IEA cut its annual forecast by a further 200,000 barrels a day.
In the coming week, it remains to be seen whether the EUAs will be able to hold their ground above the 40 mark for longer or whether profit-taking will lead to a technical backlash such as a 50% retracement of the sharp rise since the beginning of February. In addition to the possible backlash, rising temperatures in Central Europe could put a strain on the buying mood, as could cautious purchases from the compliance system operator. The new trading week, however, starts with a green sign.
| (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC) | |||
| Instrument | 05/02/2021 | 12/02/2021 | Change |
| EUA (Spot-Market) | 37.99 EUR | 39.92 EUR | +1.93 EUR |
| EUA (December-2021-Future) | 38.20 EUR | 40,02 EUR | +1.82 EUR |
| CER (Spot-Market) | 0.41 EUR | 0.40 EUR | -0.01 EUR |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) | 59.46 USD | 62.59 USD | +3.13 USD |
| EURO (Currency, Forex) | 1.2049 USD | 1.2118 USD | +0.0069 USD |
(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.
With kind regards,
Advantag Services GmbH