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Dear Sir or Madam,

In the negotiations with the CDU and the SPD, the Green Party has managed to push through the idea that 1/10th, or 100 billion, of the exorbitant debt package , the exorbitant German debt package of 1,000,000,000,000.00 euros (one trillion euros), 1/10th, or 100 billion euros, will be invested in climate protection and climate neutrality in 2045 is to be written into the German constitution.

It is still far from certain whether the resolution on this mountain of debt will receive the necessary two-thirds majority in both the German Bundestag and the Bundesrat this week, as there could potentially be defectors in the ranks of the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens, and the majority will be conceivably narrow.

However, Manuel Frondel of the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the Ruhr University Bochum has determined that significantly higher costs for the economy, consumers and the state will be added to the 100 billion debt for five years of earlier climate neutrality compared to other EU states.

According to the study he led, Germany could avoid up to 750 billion euros in higher costs if it aligned its climate neutrality target with the other EU states‘ 2050 target, which in turn means that the other states’ target would cost up to 750 billion.

His argument is based on the assumption that abatement costs will rise sharply until 2045. Furthermore, this would not help the climate, because the EU Emission Allowances that would then be released would simply be bought up by companies in other countries, which would then be able to emit more greenhouse gases.

Last week, these EU Emission Allowances showed a gain of 3.4 per cent for the first time in five weeks, based on the weekly closing prices, and the December future closed just below the 71-euro mark.

The bullish sentiment was accompanied by a corresponding energy market environment, which benefited from the cool Central European temperatures, which, however, will rise noticeably again towards the end of the week.

A total of 13,416,000 EUA will be offered on the EEX this week on all five trading days, which represents an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	07/03/25	14/03/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	68.63 EUR	70.99 EUR	+2.36 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	39.06 GBP	44.29 GBP	+5.23 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	101.42 GBP	104.52 GBP	+3.10 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	67.88 USD	67.81 USD	-0.07 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0834 USD	1.0879 USD	+0.0045 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

China will expand its emissions trading system to include steel, aluminium and cement production this year, and will incorporate more and more sectors into emissions trading in the years to come. The People’s Republic recognised the urgency of reducing greenhouse gases long ago. Most of the world’s wind turbines, often co-financed by voluntary carbon emissions trading, are in China.

And in Germany, the turnaround in transport policy is now showing the first visible signs of success. The Federal Network Agency reports more than 160,000 public charging points. Among other things, this has led to a 30.8% increase in the number of electric cars in February compared to the same month last year. Only Tesla is being shunned because of its CEO Elon Musk, especially in Germany.

But what does this mean in terms of CO2 emissions in the transport sector? The electric cars currently on the road in Germany save 1.4 billion litres of fossil fuels per year, which corresponds to CO2 emissions of more than 3.6 billion kilos or 3.6 million tonnes of CO2. Even if these cars were charged with the average German electricity mix – which is not the case in most cases – they would still save 2.8 million tonnes of CO2 annually, not to mention noise emissions and particulate matter that is not emitted in cities. And the electricity needed for the refineries is also reduced, which is around 10 Kilowatt hours per litre.

In the past trading week, which, in addition to the events in the White House in Washington, was also marked by above-average temperatures in Central Europe, EU emission rights fell significantly again in a weak energy market environment. Only a resistance line, which is currently around the 67 euro mark, was able to stop the December benchmark contract of EUAs at the end of the week, which is why EUAs closed higher on Friday.

Thus, the EUAs have almost given up the price gains they made in the rally that began on 18 December 2024, which is definitely not uninteresting for compliance buyers.

Whether the above-mentioned support holds this week depends on the market environment and political developments in Germany with regard to coalition talks, as well as overall global political developments, which are currently dominated by the US and its completely erratic president. Significantly colder temperatures in Central Europe this week should have a rather bullish effect.

This week, the Polish auction on Wednesday has been cancelled again, which is why a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the other auction days on the EEX.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	28/02/25	07/03/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.00 EUR	68.63 EUR	-2.37 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	42.87 GBP	39.06 GBP	-9.99 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	111.41 GBP	101.42 GBP	-1.84 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	69.72 USD	67.88 USD	-1.74 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0376 USD	1.0834 USD	+0.0458 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The expansion of renewable energies is one side of the energy transition, maintaining grid stability is the other. This applies in particular on days when there is either too much renewable energy or too little.

This is where storage technology comes in, absorbing excess energy on sunny and windy days and releasing it again at night when there is no wind.

RWE has now installed battery storage systems in the North Rhine-Westphalian towns of Hamm and Neurath, which have a total storage capacity of 220 megawatts; further storage systems are planned in Hamm.

In addition to grid stability, the business model of battery storage systems naturally also involves purchasing energy when prices are low or even negative due to oversupply and selling energy at times when market prices are particularly high due to low output from renewables.

Last week, EEX published the new auction calendar for the German national emissions trading system. The first auction will take place on Tuesday, 3 June 2025 for both national emission certificates with the year 2024 (nEZ24) and the new year 2025 (nEZ25).

Since the submission deadline for nEZ24 is Tuesday, 30 September 2025, the last auction of the 2024 certificates will be held on Thursday, 18 September 2025.

On Thursday, 04/12/2025, the last auction for national emission allowances with the year 2025 will take place.

Prices for emission allowances in the EU ETS I continued to be weak last week due to the negative market environment and the reduction of speculative long positions. EUAs lost a further 3.9% on a weekly closing price basis, ending the previous week in the benchmark contract at 71.00 euros, which is just above the 200-day line, currently at 70.93.

It is difficult to say whether the EUAs will be able to hold above the 70-euro mark, as there are currently many influencing factors based on the market environment as well as the global political level.

Since the EUAs also have a deadline for submission on 30 September 2025, the currently weak prices could be a good opportunity for companies subject to the compliance requirement to cover part of the portfolio earmarked for this.

We would be happy to work with you to develop a corresponding procurement strategy.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	21/02/25	28/02/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	73.90 EUR	71.00 EUR	-2.90 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	40.66 GBP	42.87 GBP	+2.21 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	117.13 GBP	111.41 GBP	-5.72 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	71.46 USD	69.72 USD	-1.74 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0461 USD	1.0376 USD	-0.0085 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Friday, 14 February 2025, the German Bundesrat (Federal Council) passed a comprehensive legislative package on energy and emissions trading. This package includes several important measures aimed at facilitating the expansion of renewable energies and achieving climate targets.

One of these was the direct marketing of solar power. The new rules stipulate that fewer plant operators will receive the state-guaranteed feed-in tariff. Instead, their income is now based on the prices on the energy exchange. When electricity prices are negative, the tariff is now suspended to create incentives for storing surplus electricity, which also benefits grid stability.

In the future, electric cars should also be able to charge bidirectionally, i.e. their batteries can be integrated into the power grid and used to store electricity.

Furthermore, the approval of wind turbines in areas that have not yet been designated for this purpose has been made more difficult in order to promote acceptance of the expansion of wind energy; the funding of combined heat and power plants has also been extended. Additional incentives are also being created for the flexible design of biogas plants in order to improve the consistency of electricity generation.

And in carbon emissions trading, the reform of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act (TEHG), which had already been passed by the Bundestag on 31 January 2025, was approved. This was particularly concerned with new EU rules for the introduction of the EU ETS II trading system for the heating and transport sectors. Furthermore, maritime transport will be included in the existing emissions trading scheme and the rules for aviation will be tightened.

However, it is currently anything but certain whether the EU ETS II will really start on 1 January 2027. The Czech Republic, for example, is calling for a postponement until 2028, and Poland even until 2030.

Italy also fears that the energy-intensive industry will be overburdened. Germany, on the other hand, has proposed a gradual introduction, with 30% of emissions to be priced in the first year, 50% in the second year and 100% in the third year.

France and Sweden, on the other hand, have advocated a rapid implementation of EU ETS II.

In any case, it will remain exciting and now that the Bundesrat has given its approval, it can be assumed that the EEX auction calendar for this year’s primary market fixed-price auctions of Germanys national ETS will not be too long in coming.

Prices in the EU ETS I continued to be bearish last week and the EUAs benchmark contract ended the week below the 80 euro mark. In particular, weaker gas prices led to market participants then taking profits.

On Thursday, EUAs were still holding at the 38-day line, which is currently at 78.70, but by Friday this resistance had also become obsolete. Towards the end of trading, the price stabilised again and ended the trading week at 79.75, with a weekly loss of 3.1%.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	07/02/25	14/02/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	82.28 EUR	79.75 EUR	-2.53 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	46.97 GBP	46.71 GBP	-0.26 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	129.34 GBP	125.03 GBP	-4.31 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	71.51 USD	71.87 USD	+0.36 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0328 USD	1.0492 USD	+0.0164 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team