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Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced their intention to link their emissions trading systems (ETS). The linking of the UK and EU systems is intended to create a larger and more efficient market, which will reduce the costs of emissions reduction while increasing the effectiveness of the measures.

Linking the UK and EU emissions trading systems offers a number of advantages. A larger market increases liquidity and reduces price volatility, leading to more stable and predictable prices for emission allowances. This, in turn, gives companies greater planning certainty and facilitates investment in decarbonisation technologies.

By linking the systems, the UK ETS and the EU ETS can better coordinate their climate policies. This is particularly important at a time when international cooperation and ambitious measures are needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Close cooperation between the UK and the EU can also serve as a model for other countries and regions to link their emissions trading systems and create global markets for emission allowances, as is already the case between the Swiss trading system and the EU ETS.

In addition, trade barriers such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which the UK will also introduce in 2027, would be removed, benefiting both parties.

The UK and EU governments have announced that they will work closely together in the coming months to plan and implement the linking of the systems. This includes consultations with stakeholders, technical feasibility studies and the adaptation of the legal framework.

The prices of British and European emission allowances responded to this information with corresponding price gains, with UKA rising by 6% in the short term.

Following US President Trump’s announcement that he intends to impose tariffs on imports of goods from the EU from 1 June 2025, prices on the markets fell significantly and EU emission allowances also lost ground, dropping from a daily high of 73.00 euros to a daily low of 70.00 euros in the benchmark contract.

By the end of the trading day, the market uncertainty triggered once again by Donald Trump had subsided somewhat and the closing price recovered to 71.56 euros. On a weekly basis, the trading week ended with a moderate gain of 0.8%.

After a conversation that was certainly not particularly pleasant for Ms von der Leyen, Trump decided yesterday to postpone the tariffs on EU goods until 9 July.

Due to the public holiday, auctions at the EEX will only take place on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with a total volume of 5,318,000 EUAs.

Instrument	16/05/25	23/05/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.99 EUR	71.56 EUR	+0.57 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	79.16 EUR	81.03 EUR	+1.87 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	48.36 GBP	51.69 GBP	+3.33 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	96.12 GBP	98.93 GBP	+2.81 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	63.70 USD	63.15 USD	-0.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1164 USD	1.1364 USD	+0.0200 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

On 15 May 2025, the German Advisory Council on Climate Change published its latest report on the progress and challenges of national climate policy. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the measures taken to date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and analyses their effectiveness and the challenges that remain.

According to the report, significant progress has been made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Germany since 2020. Emissions have fallen by more than 35% compared to 1990. This reduction is mainly due to the expansion of renewable energies, improvements in energy efficiency and the decline in coal combustion.

Renewable energies have made a significant contribution to energy supply in recent years. In 2024, renewable energies accounted for around 46% of gross electricity consumption. Wind and solar energy in particular have established themselves as pillars of the energy transition. However, the report emphasises that the further expansion and integration of these energies into the electricity grid must be accelerated in order to achieve the climate targets.

Improving energy efficiency in various sectors, particularly in the building sector and industry, is highlighted as a key measure for reducing emissions. The report shows that significant savings can be achieved through energy-efficient renovations and the use of more efficient technologies. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed to exploit the full potential.

The transport sector continues to pose a major challenge. Despite some progress in the electrification of transport and the promotion of public transport, emissions in this sector have only fallen slightly. The report therefore calls for stronger measures to promote electric mobility, expand the charging infrastructure and create incentives for a shift to climate-friendly modes of transport.

The transport and buildings sectors are currently priced through the national emissions trading system in Germany and are to be transferred to the EU ETS 2 from 2027 for pricing on the free market.

Last week, Poland, in its capacity as chair of the EU Council of Ministers, spoke out in favour of postponing EU ETS 2 by at least one year and announced that it would otherwise apply for a derogation for Poland if the necessary majorities were not achieved.

Prices for emission allowances in EU ETS 1 were relatively volatile last week, trading in a range between 70.52 and 75.02 euros in the EUA benchmark contract. Prices are thus significantly higher than the 200-day line, which currently stands at 69.67.

However, on a weekly closing basis, they gained only 60 cents, as the closing price stood at 70.99 after rising sharply to over 75 euros on Friday.

As there is no significant resistance nearby, both a further rise and the possibility of profit-taking after the rise of the past weeks are possible.

A total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX this week, and due to Ascension Day, only 5,318,000 emission allowances will be auctioned on two trading days next week. 

Instrument	09/05/25	16/05/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.39 EUR	70.99 EUR	+0.60 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	77.71 EUR	79.16 EUR	+1.45 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	51.39 GBP	48.36 GBP	-3.03 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	95.06 GBP	96.12 GBP	+1.06 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	62.63 USD	63.70 USD	+1.07 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1250 USD	1.1164 USD	-0.0086 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last year, Germany imported fossil fuels worth €76 billion, mainly in the form of oil and natural gas. These energy sources are almost entirely imported.

Greater independence from these greenhouse gas-intensive fuels is therefore desirable from both a global political and economic perspective.

However, the German electricity grid must be made more flexible, even though it had to cope with 32.8% less electricity last year than in the peak year of 2017. Although it is significantly less vulnerable than the Spanish electricity grid, for example, thanks to redundant safety mechanisms, blackouts such as those experienced on the Iberian Peninsula last week cannot be completely ruled out.

The expansion of renewable energies poses a particular challenge. According to the photovoltaic industry association BSW Solar, growth of 17.5 gigawatts is expected this year, which would mean that PV would overtake coal-fired power generation.

Currently, plants with a capacity of 105 gigawatts are in operation in Germany, and according to the federal government’s plans, a total installed capacity of 215 GW is to be achieved by 2030.

According to BSW Solar, the five million PV systems installed last year alone reduced CO₂ emissions by a total of 50 million tonnes. If expansion doubles, approximately 100 million fewer emission allowances will be required annually in the German energy sector.

The prices for these emission allowances in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS I) ended last Friday’s trading week with a gain for the fourth week in a row. The benchmark contract closed the trading week with a gain of 3.5% just below the 69 euro mark, after resistance around 50 cents above that level proved stable.

After lower auction volumes on the European Energy Exchange in the last three weeks due to the holidays, a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned this week, representing an increase of 32.5% compared to the previous week.

Instrument	25/04/25	02/05/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	66.43 EUR	68.76 EUR	+2.33 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	47.46 GBP	49.63 GBP	+2.17 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	89.82 GBP	91.72 GBP	+1.90 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	64.40 USD	60.68 USD	-3.72 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1363 USD	1.1300 USD	-0.0063 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The development of carbon emissions from the German electricity mix can certainly be described as positive. While 764 grams of CO₂ per kilowatt hour of electricity were emitted in 1990, last year the figure was only 363 grams, less than half. Ten years earlier, in 2014, the figure was 559 grams, and in the previous year, 2023, it was 386 grams. In 2022, the figure was 433 grams, according to the German Federal Environment Agency.

This development is particularly linked to the expansion of renewable energies, but also to the significant decline in electricity consumption. While consumption stood at 479 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1990, the year of German reunification, it rose steadily to 583 TWh by 2017. However, since 2018, electricity consumption has fallen for the first time to 573 TWh. In the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, 2020, consumption reached a temporary low of 513 terawatt hours, followed by an increase to 529 TWh in 2021.

In 2022, the year the war in Ukraine began, however, there was another decline to 516 TWh, followed by a significant drop of 12% to 454 terawatt hours in the following year. This trend continued in 2024 with a further decline to 439 TWh, despite the significant increase in e-mobility in the transport sector and the increased use of heat pumps in buildings.

Since the peak in 2017, electricity consumption in Germany has fallen by a good quarter in the past year. Some people may be pleased about this, but such a sharp decline in electricity consumption is linked to a sharp decline in demand in industrial production, which could only be offset by rising inflation, as can be seen when comparing this with the development of gross domestic product.

Only a visible increase in German electricity consumption will signal a turnaround in the German economy and an end to the downturn.

This has a monocausal impact on total emissions and, consequently, on the price of European emission allowances, given that Germany is the EU’s largest economy.

From this perspective, emission allowances have rightly fallen from their high of over 100 euros per EUA to their current level of between 60 and 70 euros per tonne.

In the past trading week, which was shortened to four days, EUAs traded in a range between 63.61 and 67.63 euros in the December 25 benchmark contract and closed with a slight gain of 0.8% at 66.43 euros.

Due to the public holiday, only three auctions will take place at the EEX this week, from Monday to Wednesday, at which 8,563,500 EUAs will be auctioned. This represents a small increase of 5.74% compared to the previous week, in which only three auctions took place due to Easter Monday.

Instrument	17/04/25	25/04/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	65.89 EUR	66.43 EUR	+0.54 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	47.16 GBP	47.46 GBP	+0.30 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	98.39 GBP	89.82 GBP	-8.57 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	65.11 USD	64.40 USD	-0.71 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1372 USD	1.1363 USD	-0.0009 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team