Category: Carbon Market News

Dear Sir or Madam,

France has called the European Union for a price corridor for CO2 emissions trading in order to limit volatility driven by speculation while still being in line with the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The French Minister for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, explained that companies should be given long-term price signals so that they can adapt and plan ahead.

On the other hand, the Berlin think tank Agora Energiewende is calling for a minimum price in the EU ETS II. In its recently published policy brief “Course to Goal Achievement”, Agora recommends a minimum price of 90 euros when the EU ETS II is introduced in 2027. The target price set by the EU is between 48 and 80 euros.

In addition, Agora repeatedly proposes paying a climate allowance of 120 euros per person from 2026, which should then be scaled according to income in subsequent years. At present, this would correspond to about half of the revenue from national emissions trading system in Germany.

So far, however, there has been no information regarding the climate allowance in the current German coalition negotiations between the CDU/CSU and SPD.

Under pressure from further falling gas prices, the price of EU ETS emission allowances fell back below the 70 euro mark last week and ended the week down 3.7% on Friday.

Last Thursday, EUAs broke through the 200-day-line and moved towards the strong support level described in the last market report at just over 68 euros. On Friday, this technical support also held and the price recovered slightly to a closing price of 68.80 in the benchmark contract.

This week, auctions will be held on all five trading days on the EEX, with a total of 13,417,000 EUAs being auctioned.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	21/03/25	28/03/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.45 EUR	68.80 EUR	-2.65 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	46.24 GBP	44.59 GBP	-1.65 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	109.03 GBP	104.98 GBP	-4.05 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	69.05 USD	69.62 USD	+0.57 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0816 USD	1.0829 USD	+0.0013 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

In recent weeks, the topic of price developments for fossil fuels following the introduction of EU ETS II in 2027 has been repeatedly taken up by the press. Since journalists tend to copy each other, most reports had the aim of scaremongering about exorbitantly rising petrol and diesel prices.

By and large, most media outlets wrote about price increases of 38 to 40 cents for a litre of petrol, diesel or heating oil from 2027, and a price of 200 to 300 euros per tonne of CO2 was expected for CO2 emission certificates.

Now, a few days ago, Prof. Dr. Alexander Eisenkopf from the Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen has brought a completely different possibility into play. In the coming year, the fixed price phase in Germany’s national emissions trading will end and prices will move in a corridor of 55 to 65 euros.

Since the European Union has also built a market stability reserve into the EU ETS II for reasons of social compatibility and is aiming for a target price of 45 euros per tonne, at least at the beginning in 2027, Professor Eisenkopf sees a high probability that fuel prices in Germany could even fall slightly as a result of the falling prices for CO2.

Our scenario for the introduction of the EU ETS II initially predicts a high probability of very volatile prices until supply and demand settle into a realistic price corridor. In the long term, we also expect prices to rise, but a sharp increase to up to €300 per tonne is rather unlikely.

However, since the distributors of fossil heating and combustion fuels need a correspondingly profitable margin calculation, there is also the possibility that a higher price could be charged at petrol stations in the first few weeks until competitive prices prevail.

Based on our many years of experience in fundamental market analysis and chart analysis in other energy and commodity markets, particularly in the EU ETS I, we will be happy to assist you.

Last week, prices for emission rights in the EU ETS I continued to move up in an upward channel that began two weeks ago, supported by the market environment, and closed with a slight gain of 0.65% on a weekly basis despite profit-taking by institutional investors.

The EUA benchmark contract for December 2025 moved in a range of €69.59 to €74.23, but was stopped by a resistance line, which is currently slightly above the €74 mark. Should the market environment remain bullish, this barrier could be broken and the way towards €80 would be clear. If the resistance holds, the EUA could also fall back below the 70-euro mark.

This week, the Polish Wednesday auction is off again, which is why only 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the other four days, compared to 13,416,000 last week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	14/03/25	21/03/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.99 EUR	71.45 EUR	+0.46 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	44.29 GBP	46.24 GBP	+1.95 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	104.52 GBP	109.03 GBP	+4.51 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	67.81 USD	69.05 USD	+1.24 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0879 USD	1.0816 USD	-0.0063 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

In the negotiations with the CDU and the SPD, the Green Party has managed to push through the idea that 1/10th, or 100 billion, of the exorbitant debt package , the exorbitant German debt package of 1,000,000,000,000.00 euros (one trillion euros), 1/10th, or 100 billion euros, will be invested in climate protection and climate neutrality in 2045 is to be written into the German constitution.

It is still far from certain whether the resolution on this mountain of debt will receive the necessary two-thirds majority in both the German Bundestag and the Bundesrat this week, as there could potentially be defectors in the ranks of the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens, and the majority will be conceivably narrow.

However, Manuel Frondel of the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the Ruhr University Bochum has determined that significantly higher costs for the economy, consumers and the state will be added to the 100 billion debt for five years of earlier climate neutrality compared to other EU states.

According to the study he led, Germany could avoid up to 750 billion euros in higher costs if it aligned its climate neutrality target with the other EU states‘ 2050 target, which in turn means that the other states’ target would cost up to 750 billion.

His argument is based on the assumption that abatement costs will rise sharply until 2045. Furthermore, this would not help the climate, because the EU Emission Allowances that would then be released would simply be bought up by companies in other countries, which would then be able to emit more greenhouse gases.

Last week, these EU Emission Allowances showed a gain of 3.4 per cent for the first time in five weeks, based on the weekly closing prices, and the December future closed just below the 71-euro mark.

The bullish sentiment was accompanied by a corresponding energy market environment, which benefited from the cool Central European temperatures, which, however, will rise noticeably again towards the end of the week.

A total of 13,416,000 EUA will be offered on the EEX this week on all five trading days, which represents an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	07/03/25	14/03/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	68.63 EUR	70.99 EUR	+2.36 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	39.06 GBP	44.29 GBP	+5.23 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	101.42 GBP	104.52 GBP	+3.10 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	67.88 USD	67.81 USD	-0.07 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0834 USD	1.0879 USD	+0.0045 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

China will expand its emissions trading system to include steel, aluminium and cement production this year, and will incorporate more and more sectors into emissions trading in the years to come. The People’s Republic recognised the urgency of reducing greenhouse gases long ago. Most of the world’s wind turbines, often co-financed by voluntary carbon emissions trading, are in China.

And in Germany, the turnaround in transport policy is now showing the first visible signs of success. The Federal Network Agency reports more than 160,000 public charging points. Among other things, this has led to a 30.8% increase in the number of electric cars in February compared to the same month last year. Only Tesla is being shunned because of its CEO Elon Musk, especially in Germany.

But what does this mean in terms of CO2 emissions in the transport sector? The electric cars currently on the road in Germany save 1.4 billion litres of fossil fuels per year, which corresponds to CO2 emissions of more than 3.6 billion kilos or 3.6 million tonnes of CO2. Even if these cars were charged with the average German electricity mix – which is not the case in most cases – they would still save 2.8 million tonnes of CO2 annually, not to mention noise emissions and particulate matter that is not emitted in cities. And the electricity needed for the refineries is also reduced, which is around 10 Kilowatt hours per litre.

In the past trading week, which, in addition to the events in the White House in Washington, was also marked by above-average temperatures in Central Europe, EU emission rights fell significantly again in a weak energy market environment. Only a resistance line, which is currently around the 67 euro mark, was able to stop the December benchmark contract of EUAs at the end of the week, which is why EUAs closed higher on Friday.

Thus, the EUAs have almost given up the price gains they made in the rally that began on 18 December 2024, which is definitely not uninteresting for compliance buyers.

Whether the above-mentioned support holds this week depends on the market environment and political developments in Germany with regard to coalition talks, as well as overall global political developments, which are currently dominated by the US and its completely erratic president. Significantly colder temperatures in Central Europe this week should have a rather bullish effect.

This week, the Polish auction on Wednesday has been cancelled again, which is why a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the other auction days on the EEX.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	28/02/25	07/03/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.00 EUR	68.63 EUR	-2.37 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	42.87 GBP	39.06 GBP	-9.99 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	111.41 GBP	101.42 GBP	-1.84 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	69.72 USD	67.88 USD	-1.74 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0376 USD	1.0834 USD	+0.0458 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The expansion of renewable energies is one side of the energy transition, maintaining grid stability is the other. This applies in particular on days when there is either too much renewable energy or too little.

This is where storage technology comes in, absorbing excess energy on sunny and windy days and releasing it again at night when there is no wind.

RWE has now installed battery storage systems in the North Rhine-Westphalian towns of Hamm and Neurath, which have a total storage capacity of 220 megawatts; further storage systems are planned in Hamm.

In addition to grid stability, the business model of battery storage systems naturally also involves purchasing energy when prices are low or even negative due to oversupply and selling energy at times when market prices are particularly high due to low output from renewables.

Last week, EEX published the new auction calendar for the German national emissions trading system. The first auction will take place on Tuesday, 3 June 2025 for both national emission certificates with the year 2024 (nEZ24) and the new year 2025 (nEZ25).

Since the submission deadline for nEZ24 is Tuesday, 30 September 2025, the last auction of the 2024 certificates will be held on Thursday, 18 September 2025.

On Thursday, 04/12/2025, the last auction for national emission allowances with the year 2025 will take place.

Prices for emission allowances in the EU ETS I continued to be weak last week due to the negative market environment and the reduction of speculative long positions. EUAs lost a further 3.9% on a weekly closing price basis, ending the previous week in the benchmark contract at 71.00 euros, which is just above the 200-day line, currently at 70.93.

It is difficult to say whether the EUAs will be able to hold above the 70-euro mark, as there are currently many influencing factors based on the market environment as well as the global political level.

Since the EUAs also have a deadline for submission on 30 September 2025, the currently weak prices could be a good opportunity for companies subject to the compliance requirement to cover part of the portfolio earmarked for this.

We would be happy to work with you to develop a corresponding procurement strategy.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	21/02/25	28/02/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	73.90 EUR	71.00 EUR	-2.90 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	40.66 GBP	42.87 GBP	+2.21 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	117.13 GBP	111.41 GBP	-5.72 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	71.46 USD	69.72 USD	-1.74 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0461 USD	1.0376 USD	-0.0085 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team