Category: Carbon Market News

Dear Sir or Madam,

a truly interesting week is behind us. The clearer than expected positive membership decision of the German socialist party SPD regarding a renewed grand coalition now paves the way for another chancellorship for Angela Merkel.

This will continue a government that has not used sufficient control procedures to detect tampering manipulations. At the same time, the government has not taken adequate measures to reconcile urban air pollution with EU standards in force since 2010. Vehicles with diesel internal combustion engines can now partially banned from German city centers. The mayors of the affected cities are forced to use them as a last resort, but this will hardly be possible without a blue badge, even if the Berlin politicians are currently reluctant to do so.

The urgent need to take global steps to limit the use of fossil fuels is shown by a recent study by Chinese scientists. They have found that the oceans have never been as warm as last year. The amount of energy that led to an increase in temperature compared to 2016 was 600 times the total Chinese electricity production in 2016. Climatologists worldwide will now incorporate this data into their models, and probably as a result, global warming will progress faster than theirs Worse-case scenarios feared.

Last Tuesday, the final vote was taken on the reform of EU emissions trading. As expected, this has now been decided by the EU member states. Only Poland, Hungary and Croatia did not vote in favor. In terms of content, the European greenhouse gas reduction target for 2030 has been set at 40%, which is to be achieved by an annual emission reduction factor of 2.2%. At the same time, the market stability reserve was introduced from next year, which aims to reduce the surplus certificate volumes.

The EU ETS market took this on Tuesday as an occasion to close for the first time in more than six years on a daily basis in the double-digit range. Also on a weekly basis, the EUA could increase more than three percent, which now also led to a weekly closing price of 10.10 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-03-02	2018-02-23	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	10.10 EUR	9.77 EUR	+0.33 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	10.14 EUR	9.81 EUR	+0.33 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.18 EUR	0.18 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	64.43 USD	67.02 USD	-2.59 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2317 USD	1.2294 USD	+0.0023 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH

 

Dear Sir or Madam,

Those who have been in London in the past few weeks could have made their way from the airport to the city with a black, visually typical London taxi, which glides through the metropolis without emissions and noise. London Taxi is part of the Chinese Geely Group, as is Volvo, which has also announced plans to power all models electrically in the near future.

Now, billionaire and major shareholder of Geely, Li Shufu, is with his company the largest single shareholder in the German automotive group Daimler with a stake of 9.69%. Li Shufu’s main focus is an alliance for autonomous driving and electromobility.

Together with the information that the demand in Germany exceeds the production capacity of the manufacturer of electric vehicles in such a way that one waits six to nine months for a renewed order of a pure electric car, it looks thereafter that finally also in Germany alternative drives after a bumpy start became accepted by the consumer.

Although the Federal Administrative Court has postponed the announcement of its decision on possible driving bans for older diesel cars to tomorrow’s Tuesday, the incumbent federal government is already working on a legal basis for the creation of driving bans for elder diesel cars in German inner cities.

If the expansion of the charging infrastructure also succeeds in the foreseeable future, so that city residents without their own garage can fully exploit the advantages of the electric drive, the share of internal combustion engines will decline significantly in the coming years. Currently, this is not yet noticeable in the global crude oil consumption, which is reflected not least in the renewed rise in prices.

The demand for CO2 emission rights continued to keep prices in the range of just under 10 euros per ton in the past week. The cold weather front in Central and Eastern Europe is expected to increase demand for fossil fuels this week, even though the sun and wind also contribute a good part to the energy mix. From a bullish point of view, it would therefore not be a disadvantage to close this week once, at least on a daily basis, above the 10-euro mark.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-02-23	2018-02-16	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	9.50 EUR	9.21 EUR	+0.29 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	9.52 EUR	9.23 EUR	+0.29 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.18 EUR	0.17 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	64.58 USD	62.83 USD	+1.75 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2404 USD	1.2251 USD	+0.0153 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH

 

Dear Sir or Madam,

In November 2011, the European emission allowances were the last to show a double-digit number before the decimal point, despite the expectations of the majority of analysts who saw significantly lower average prices for the first half of 2018.

Last Wednesday, the EUA briefly climbed above the mark of 10 euros, but then gave back slightly more than 40 cents and closed at 9.60 euros in December Future. The spot market also demanded more than 10 euros for an emission allowance.

Supported by a stronger energy complex, the EUA closed on a weekly basis with a plus of 29 cents, which was about the gain of the week before.

An end to the Central and Eastern European cold period is not in sight, despite the upcoming meteorological start of spring in the coming week, which could also influence the prices this week.

If this is enough to bring the prices again above the 10-euro mark, will be seen. Currently, however, the old stock market rule proves once again that the bull market is nourishing the bull market. Signs of a downturn in the emission rights, at least technically is not recognizable at the moment.

However, the demand for the auctions this week and the further development of the energy market could trigger a trend reversal at any time.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-02-16	2018-02-09	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	9.50 EUR	9.21 EUR	+0.29 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	9.52 EUR	9.23 EUR	+0.29 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.18 EUR	0.17 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	64.58 USD	62.83 USD	+1.75 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2404 USD	1.2251 USD	+0.0153 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The OPEC expects a global economic growth of 3.8% and therefore expects demand for crude oil to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day to 98.6 million barrels. The increase in non-OPEC-controlled states is also estimated at 1.4 million barrels per day.

Nonetheless, oil prices have plummeted due to reports that US crude oil production has risen to more than 10 million barrels a day, and the US plans to become the world’s largest crude oil producer by the end of the year, thanks to Donald Trump’s policies.

Since the oil is not only produced, but also consumed and thus releases huge amounts of greenhouse gases worldwide, some observers may doubt whether the international community will succeed even marginally, the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C to reach.

Prices for European CO2 emission allowances again surpassed the nine-euro mark due to increased demand at the auctions last week, closing on a weekly basis with a plus of 3 percent at 9.21 euros / ton. The start of the week was clearly bullish; the EUA are currently in the range of around 9.50 euros and seem to want to find their way towards the 10-euro mark.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-02-02	2018-02-02	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	9.21 EUR	8.93 EUR	+0.28 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	9.23 EUR	8.96 EUR	+0.27 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.17 EUR	0.18 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	62.83 USD	68.37 USD	-5.54 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2251 USD	1.2456 USD	-0.0205 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The German Federal Environment Agency reported slightly improved levels of nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter and ozone pollution in Germany’s cities last year, not least due to local measures following the discovery of the diesel scandal. This may certainly be true, but 2017 was also characterized by a higher wind intensity, which should also have had influence on this.

Even today in Berlin between the party leaders of the CDU, CSU and SPD is being negotiated. So far, the lobbyists in the coal industry have been pleased, as the German climate target was quickly tipped and instead of 40% greenhouse gas reduction by 2020 compared to 1990, the values ​​of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change should be sufficient for the coming decades. In return, the possible new government wants to set statutory climate protection targets for individual sectors such as agriculture, energy or transport. This should not lead to driving bans of diesel vehicles, which makes sceptical in the face of impending complaints from the EU.

At least, with the installation of 100,000 charging stations for electric cars by 2020 and a lower company car taxation, the politicians wants to improve the air quality in cities. Public transport should also be electrified more. At the same time, the possible future government wants to make traveling by train more attractive, with the observance of the timetables would be an essential step from the perspective of many travellers.

It remains to be seen if the supporter of a renewed grand coalition will receive a sufficient majority in the final SPD member survey. Of course, a member survey is a democratic matter. On the other hand, however, it makes clear how the party’s self-confidence is when it questions the decision-making authority of the management staff. Surveys suggest that a new election would probably lead to new lows for the SPD, because who will elect a party, which must be forced to exercise government responsibility.

However, the market for CO2 emission rights will be highly anticipating the upcoming political developments.

Falling energy prices and weaker auction results have put pressure on European emission rights prices over the past week, leading to week-end rates below the nine-euro mark.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-02-02	2018-01-28	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	8.93 EUR	9.06 EUR	-0.13 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	8.96 EUR	9.09 EUR	-0.13 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.18 EUR	0.17 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	68.37 USD	70.05 USD	-1.68 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2456 USD	1.2428 USD	+0.0028 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH