Dear Sir or Madam,
The EU emissions trading scheme for transport and buildings (ETS2), which was planned to start in 2027, is being questioned by several EU countries. Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Cyprus are calling for a postponement until 2030.
The EU Commission, on the other hand, is planning reforms to EU ETS2 to prevent sharp price increases. At a meeting of EU environment ministers in Luxembourg last week, Climate Commissioner Hoekstra proposed issuing more CO2 certificates from the market stability reserve and making emission allowances cheaper if the price rises above 45 euros per tonne.
Revenues from carbon emissions trading are to be used earlier, for example for social compensation or climate-friendly investments. According to the Commission’s plans, the European Investment Bank could advance these revenues.
The majority of analysts had previously expected a starting price of 50 to 75 euros per tonne, which could later rise into the triple digits. Corresponding legislative proposals for the ETS2 reform are expected in the coming weeks, after which the EU Member States and the European Parliament will discuss them.
MEPs such as Tiemo Woelken (SPD) and Peter Liese (CDU) welcome the proposals, as they could cushion social hardship and possibly even lower the EUA2 price below the current German level. Liese, for example, expects a price level of €25 rather than €55 per EUA2.
These political developments have led to a significant downward movement in EUA2 futures prices. The ICE-listed futures contract maturing in December 2027, for example, fell by €21.11 or 25.2% last week. This trend is likely to continue if the European Commission’s proposals to weaken the EU ETS2 become more concrete.
Prices in EU ETS1 also fell last week, but at a much more moderate rate than in EU ETS2, with a weekly loss of 1.4%. The trading range for the EUA December 2025 futures contract was between €77.91 and €79.99.
Once again, it was clear to see that 80 represented a psychological resistance level and that the 38-day line provided technical support last week.
A total of 13,657,500 EUAs will be auctioned on all five trading days this week on the European Energy Exchange.
| Instrument | 17/10/25 | 24/10/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-25-Future) | 79.46 EUR | 78.32 EUR | -1.14 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-27-Future) | 83.70 EUR | 62.59 EUR | -21.11 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 56.46 GBP | 54.60 GBP | -1.86 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 82.68 GBP | 83.29 GBP | +0.61 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future) | 61.29 USD | 65.94 USD | +4.65 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1653 USD | 1.1627 USD | -0.0026 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
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With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team