Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

Last week was a tough one for climate policy.

First, on Monday, US President Donald Trump caused considerable irritation with his speech to the UN General Assembly. He bluntly described man-made climate change as ‘the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the world’ and rejected scientifically based concepts such as the carbon footprint as manipulative. He also warned of economic damage caused by the energy transition, derided wind power as a ‘joke’ and announced instead the expansion of fossil fuels in the US.

The Revolution wind farm off Rhode Island was a positive counterexample. The Trump administration recently halted the nearly completed project, but a federal court lifted the construction freeze, calling the administration’s action ‘arbitrary and capricious.’ The operator, Ørsted, immediately announced the resumption of construction work.

Trump’s stance contradicts the consensus of over 97% of climate scientists and follows a strategy that prioritises economic sovereignty over ecological responsibility. At the 15th Extreme Weather Congress in Hamburg earlier this week, representatives of the German Weather Service, the Alfred Wegener Institute and other institutions issued urgent warnings about the threat of a three-degree rise in temperature by 2050. The key message was that global warming is accelerating – and with it the frequency of extreme weather events. Meteorologist Frank Böttcher spoke of a loss of control: ‘We are flying off the climate curve.’ CO₂ emissions remain far too high, he said, and we must already plan for the 3-degree limit to be exceeded. Tobias Fuchs from the DWD confirmed an unprecedented series of record-breaking hot years and emphasised the increasing burden on cities. Climate protection and adaptation are equally indispensable, he said.

China’s President Xi Jinping also sent a climate policy signal last week. At a climate summit hosted by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, he presented new targets for his country, thus taking a clear stand against Trump. Without naming the US, Xi criticised countries that refused to join the global transition to clean energy. China plans to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by seven to ten percent from their peak by 2035. The installed capacity of wind and solar energy is to increase to 3600 gigawatts – more than six times the 2020 level. In addition, the share of non-fossil fuels in China’s energy consumption is to rise to over 30 per cent by 2035. Xi described the green transition as the order of the day and called on the international community to continue the path it has taken despite resistance from individual countries.

Towards the end of the previous week, weaker energy prices and further profit-taking weighed on the price of European pollution rights. Although the bears initially failed to push the price below 77 euros, the benchmark contract slumped by one euro on Monday after another weak auction. The price then hovered around the €76 mark with a clear downward trend – even the imminent end of the submission deadline could not stop this. On Friday, the EUA at least recovered from its weekly low of €75.10 and closed just below €76.

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

With the UN Climate Change Conference just a few months away, EU member states have now agreed in the Council of Europe to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 66.25 to 72.5 per cent by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. Climate Commissioner Hoekstra describes this as internationally ambitious. The figures are based on existing targets.

The EU Commission is also working on a draft price cap for EU ETS2 emissions trading for heating and fuels, based on an initiative by Czechia and other countries.

Czech Prime Minister Fiala sees this as a success for the initiative, but emphasised that he wanted to prevent emissions trading in these areas altogether, although no majority was reached, as he told CNN.

The architecture of the EU ETS2 as envisaged so far is therefore by no means as secure as the EU had originally imagined. Legislators need to act swiftly here, as the trading system is due to start in just 15 months.

Last Thursday, the final auction for 2024 national emission allowances (nEZ24) took place on the EEX. Due to the end of the submission deadline at the end of the month, companies should now have purchased all certificates in order to avoid penalties of €100 per nEZ24 not submitted. These penalties are payable in addition to the certificate prices.

In the last trading week, European emission allowances in the EU ETS1 were bullish again, moving along an upward trend line that had formed since the end of August towards €80. On a weekly closing basis, EUAs closed with a gain of 2.3%.

Here, too, the deadline for compliance is 30 September 2025, and the penalties are also an additional €100 per EUA not surrendered. As prices are not expected to fall significantly by the end of the month, it is advisable to stock up on any EUAs still required in good time so that they are available for surrender on time.

Due to the biweekly absence of the Polish Wednesday auction, 2,162,500 EUAs, or 15.8% fewer certificates, will be auctioned this week than in the previous week.

UPCOMING DATES

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, Munich hosted the IAA, where manufacturers from all over the world presented their latest vehicles and studies. Most of these were electric vehicles, which are showing ever-improving charging performance and range.

This once again sparked the debate as to whether a ban on combustion engines is the right way forward.

Given that CO₂ pricing for the transport sector in Germany is now in place through the national emissions trading scheme, which is to be introduced across the EU in 2027, the question arises as to whether this is necessary.

CO₂ pricing and the incipient shortage of certificates, which should go hand in hand with the promotion of electric mobility, make the ban on combustion engines obsolete. Anyone who can use a calculator will come to the conclusion that driving a combustion engine is simply financially unattractive and becoming increasingly expensive.

And the few who are financially unaffected should still be allowed the pleasure of being overtaken by an electric car, which costs only a fraction of the price, in their expensive petrol super sports car.

At the beginning of last week, prices in the EU ETS1 moved above an important resistance line towards €78, but by Wednesday there was not much momentum left in the market and on Thursday profits were taken.

The EEX is also auctioning a total of 13,657,500 EUAs on all five trading days this week, which corresponds to an increase of 18.8% compared to the previous week.

Please note: This week, on Tuesday and Thursday, the last auctions for German national emission allowances under the BEHG with the annual identifier 2024 (nEZ24) will take place. Accordingly, all companies subject to the levy that still have a requirement should contact us as soon as possible in order to participate in the auctions under the 10% rule or to cover any additional requirements on the OTC market.

UPCOMING DATES

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team