Dear Madam or Sir,
The consulting firm EY has calculated that Germany will lose around 50 billion in tax revenue between 2024 and 2030 as a result of the switch to electromobility.
In particular, this includes revenue from mineral oil tax and national carbon emissions trading.
However, it is not foreseeable how this revenue shortfall will be plugged; after all, electric cars run on the same electricity that households use and a steadily growing number of homeowners are refuelling their cars with solar power.
The rising prices in emissions trading will certainly compensate for some of this, but it is safe to assume that legislators will develop ideas to generate the missing revenue.
The only dilemma is that they cannot ask drivers of electric vehicles to pay directly, as this would be counterproductive for climate protection and the achievement of the sector target.
Last week, prices for EU emission allowances remained stable in the upward trend channel that has been developing for more than a month and once again achieved a small gain of 0.5% at the end of the week.
If this trend channel continues to prove resilient, a trading range between around EUR 59.50 and EUR 67.70 is conceivable in the second week of Easter, with the 38-day line at EUR 59.53 also providing support. The 200-day line is still a long way off at EUR 76.81.
| (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC) | |||
| Instrument | 22/03/24 | 28/03/24 | Change |
| EUA (December-2024-Future) | 61.51 EUR | 61:80 EUR | +0.29 EUR |
| VER (Natural Carbon Offsets) | 0.99 USD | 0.89 USD | -0.10 USD |
| VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets) | 0.43 USD | 0.65 USD | +0.22 USD |
| nEZ (German National Carbon Units) | 45.00 EUR | 45.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) | 85.01 USD | 86.82 USD | +1.81 USD |
| EURO (Currency, Forex) | 1.0807 USD | 1.0788 USD | -0.0019 USD |
(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.
With kind regards,
ADVANTAG Services GmbH