Dear Sir or Madam,

The persistent lack of water keeps Germany’s longest river, the Rhine, under control, even though there has been some precipitation in recent days. The previous low-rain period has meant that the Rhine for inland navigation can only be navigated with a significantly lower loading volume. This leads to more ship traffic, as not all goods can be transported alternatively by rail and road, but also to supply bottlenecks. Along the Rhine, there were already significant difficulties in the supply of fuel at the filling stations in recent weeks. In some places, diesel and petrol were temporarily unavailable at the pumps. Therefore, the Federal Ministry of Economics has released access to 70,000 tons of gasoline, 150,000 tons of diesel and 56,000 tons of kerosene from the German crude oil reserve. These quantities have already been almost completely taken over by the petroleum industry. A relaxation of the situation is not in sight despite current rainfall.

The advancement of global warming with longer periods of drought, associated with melting glaciers in the Alps, could in future cause significantly greater problems for European inland navigation and thus security of supply, which is why debates are already underway on shallower vessels.

From 3 to 14 December, the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP 24) will take place in Katowice, Poland. Prior to this, the IPCC was consulted, which came to the conclusion that only by rapid and drastic emission reductions in all areas of our society, the world community can still achieve the 1.5-degree target. At the current rate of heating, however, 1.5 degrees would be reached as early as the 2040s.

Prices for European greenhouse gas emission allowances continued to rise nearly 14% after last week’s correction last week, after a half-year low of EUR 15.10 a week earlier. However, the price increase failed on Friday at the 20-euro mark, which, however, could be broken this morning without any problems. The further weakening oil prices and the above-average warm November do not currently seem to exert any negative influence on the price trend.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-11-02	2018-11-09	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	17.08 EUR	19.45 EUR	+2.37 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	17.08 EUR	19.50 EUR	+2.42 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.27 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	72.75 USD	69.67 USD	-3.08 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1387 USD	1.1335 USD	-0.0052 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

 

 

 

Dear Sir or Madam,

A politically interesting time is coming up this week and in the following days. In the US tomorrow, the “Midterms”, which decides on the occupation of the House of Representatives and a good third of US Senators. Here it remains to be seen whether the Democrats will gain the majority in the House of Representatives, even if the opposition often scored in the middle between the presidential elections.

And it will be interesting to see who in the last remaining German People’s Party, the CDU, will take over the party leadership in the future after the surprisingly announced withdrawal of Chancellor Angela Merkel. The more urgently the will within the party for change comes to light, the more uncertain it is whether its chancellorship will continue until the end of the legislative period. And this is not only relevant at national level, but also from a European point of view.

The oil price has lost 12% to about $ 72 a barrel in the last month. The sanctions against Iran have lost their horror and the OPEC countries are currently promoting record volumes. The US and Russia, with 11.4 million barrels a day, compete in a true race for fossil fuel business. In addition, there should be exceptions for major industrialized countries with regard to Iranian oil.

In addition, NASA forecasts for Central Europe temperatures in November that are 3°C warmer than the long-term average, resulting in lower fossil fuel consumption and thus lower greenhouse gas emissions from the heat supply.

All this has further strengthened the bears and lowered the prices for CO2 emission rights by another € 1.20 per tonne compared to the previous week. The half-year low was even seen at $ 15.10 last Thursday, after which the price was significantly stronger on Friday with a gain of two euros.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-10-26	2018-11-02	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	18.28 EUR	17.08 EUR	-1.20 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	18.28 EUR	17.08 EUR	-1.20 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.28 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	77.41 USD	72.75 USD	-4.66 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1401 USD	1.1387 USD	-0.0014 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

In the German state of Hesse, voters have cast their votes for the state election. One in five votes became the Green party, which most prominently addresses climate and environmental protection. Also in the previous election in Bavaria, the Greens had high voice gains and were there at just under 17.5%.

German chancellor Angela Merkel has tried before the Hessian state parliament election to influence the issue of diesel car driving bans by any changes in the Federal Immissions Act. After the election results in Hesse, the German government should now understand that environmental and climate protection after the record summer 2018 occupies an increasingly important position among German voters.

The European Environment Agency (EEA) has just published the 2018 report on European air pollution and concluded that air pollution in Europe is still far too high, making it the leading cause of premature death in 41 countries. The researchers calculated in 2015 about 442,000 deaths associated with air pollution.

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and of other pollutant and particulate matter emissions should therefore be given a much higher priority in Europe, even if this will lead to significant changes in consumer behaviour and mobility.

Last week, European CO2 emission allowances fell 7% from the previous week, which was accompanied by weaker demand on auctions and a negative market environment in the energy sector. The new trading week begins also with a negative sign, which is certainly not considered negative on the buyer side.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-10-19	2018-10-26	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	19.71 EUR	18.28 EUR	-1.43 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	19.76 EUR	18.28 EUR	-1.48 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.28 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	79.95 USD	77.41 USD	-2.54 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1517 USD	1.1401 USD	-0.0116 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

According to the organizers on Saturday, 670,000 demonstrators participated in a rally in favor of a second referendum on Brexit. The people moved through central London to the parliament, in order to express to the politicians a particularly strong signal of the alleged popular will. But the demonstration prospectively will have little effect, as the political sentiment in parliament has clearly changed in favor of a withdrawal. In addition, according to a recent survey, around 20 percent of British industrial companies have already put their plans into action in the event of a hard Brexit, and it should be as much as 80 percent by the end of the year. In addition to downsizing, this includes relocation of production, the building up of additional storage capacities to cushion bottlenecks, the adjustment of contractual conditions and, finally, the postponement of investment decisions.

According to Prime Minister May, moreover, 95 percent of the withdrawal conditions are negotiated. Nevertheless, the issue of border regulation in Ireland remains a problem when leaving the European family of states, but this has primarily a religious-historical background.

The CO2 market was initially very bearish last week. From its level just above the 20-euro mark, the price passed quickly towards the south at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, the price fell temporarily below 18 euros, which was used immediately as a buy signal. A similar scenario was repeated on Thursday, but buyers reacted already above the 18-euro mark this time, raising the price to a range between EUR 19.50 and EUR 20.00.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-10-12	2018-10-19	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	20.35 EUR	19.71 EUR	-0.64 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	20.39 EUR	19.76 EUR	-0.63 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.28 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	81.53 USD	79.95 USD	-1.58 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1576 USD	1.1517 USD	-0.0059 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Yesterday, the United Kingdom and the EU wanted to clear the main outstanding issues in Brexit at a meeting of negotiators, before the progresses on Wednesday at the EU summit should be discussed. But the talks were broken off without result. The main disputed point was once more the necessary border regulation between Northern Ireland and the EU member Ireland, above all because of the fear of a resurgence of the old Ireland conflict. Time is short, because there are not six months left until the official exit date.

In case of the failure of the negotiations, the UK Government has recently clarified that Britain will leave the ETS, the European Emissions Trading Scheme, by the end of March 2019. What this will mean for the carbon market is not yet clear, especially as British companies are considering the possibility of opening register accounts in mainland Europe in order to continue trading in pollution rights.

Last weekend, a series of temperature records were broken again. The peak in Germany was officially 29.7 degrees measured on Saturday – and that middle of October! But not the heat in Europe, but the catastrophic weather events in his country, the recent denier of climate change, US President Donald Trump, now apparently showed a kind of rethinking. After all, he admits that something is changing, even though he does not believe that this change is man-made and that urgent action is needed to prevent even worse catastrophes. He definitely does not want to invest billions and endanger thousands of jobs, Trump said in a recent interview. But that he admits the existence of a climate change at all, is already a small sensation.

Quite different the situation at our Polish neighbors. The country is dependent on coal burning for around 85 percent of its energy needs, and the government clearly has no plans to change that. While the skyrocketing carbon price elsewhere leads to market-driven consequences, the ruling PiS cuts subsidies for renewable energy and instead prepares compensation for companies and households. It will be interesting to see when pressure from the polish people finally sets in, as the so-called winter smog is becoming more unbearable from year to year there.

The CO2 market remained highly volatile during the past trading week. Within just a few days, the highly speculative market bridged a price range of around four euros and stopped at last near 18.30 euros. Recently, however, the price stabilized again above the 20-euro mark.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-10-05	2018-10-12	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	22.09 EUR	20.35 EUR	-1.74 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	22.16 EUR	20.39 EUR	-1.77 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.28 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	84.12 USD	81.53 USD	-2.59 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1522 USD	1.1576 USD	+0.0054 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH