Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (2018-09-17)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Chaos days – it’s hard to find another summary term for the events of the past week.

Chaos days, for example, for the uncounted inhabitants of the Philippines and China, who had to be evacuated because of the typhoon “Mangkhut”, suffered heavy damage to their belongings and many of whom have already died. In the Philippines alone, 65 dead people have been reported so far, but many residents are still missing.

Chaos days, too, because at the time of the typhoon’s landfall, on the other side of the earth the storm “Florence” had also claimed its first lives and is incessantly flooding the southeastern US with unimaginable masses of water.

Chaos days but unfortunately also brought about by people, such as in the North Rhine-Westphalian Hambacher forest. The current eviction of the forest area, which has been occupied for some 6 years, proves to be a reflection of the political situation in Germany. Driven by the AFD, which is known to deny the man-made climate change, the policy is divided into the proponents of the fastest possible exit from the dirtiest energy source on the one hand and those who want to use lignite as long as possible. Here especially the energy giant RWE, who likes to advertise with the pun “voRWEggehen” (moving in front, to lead the way), but probably meant something else. Even though RWE may officially want to keep an eye on supply security, electricity costs and jobs in addition to climate protection in the energy transition, the current fight in the Hambacher Forest means everything else but “lead the way”. While, on the one hand, the share of renewable energies in Germany continues to rise and, on the other hand, coal burning is becoming more and more unattractive as a result of the significantly increased CO2 price, one has to consider the fight for the Hambacher Forest more as the behavior of a regime, which on the last day before the end of the war is still hastily carrying out legal executions of opponents of the regime. Anyway, it could be good that this shot goes backwards.

Chaos days, however, also on the carbon market. From the circle of intermediaries, someone on Friday called the situation as “insane”. From a technical point of view, the market has experienced the worst decline since 2006, with a fabulous 30 percent drop within one week. The background only can be explained with panic sales. On Wednesday, the market already saw a slightly weaker auction of Polish certificates on the EEX, followed by a really significantly worse result one day later. Speculative traders reacted in panic. On Monday of the same week, the price for pollution rights had risen to a high of 25.79 EUR and now probably none of the speculators wanted to miss the possible turnaround. This in turn automatically triggered this spectacular price drop through previously set stop-loss orders, which only came to a standstill at 17.90 EUR. In this dramatic phase, whose end was not foreseeable in the course of Friday, the spot market even partially discontinued trading. Intelligently, however, some traders stabilized with purchases the market again. Since then, the price has been moving in a range around the 20-euro mark.


(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 2018-09-07 2018-09-14 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 23.20 EUR 19.94 EUR -3.26 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future) 23.22 EUR 19.97 EUR -3.25 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.29 EUR 0.29 EUR +0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 77.02 USD 78.08 USD +1.06 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.1553 USD 1.1627 USD +0.0074 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

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With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH