Author: advantag

Dear Sir or Madam,

The EU gives Britain half a year more time, thus preventing a disorderly Brexit for the time being. By 31.10.2019 at the latest, the British are now out of the EU. The 29.03.2019 was originally the planned exit date, but the EU has already granted an extension until last Friday.

Now that a chaotic no-deal Brexit is off the table for at least a couple of months, CO2 emissions rights rose sharply last week, reaching an 11-year high. At the top, the December 2019 future was € 27.85 per EUA last Friday, but the trading session was visibly down again. On a weekly basis, an increase of 8% to EUR 26.58 on the futures market ultimately remained.

Even though in the current trading week at 7,485,000 EUA, due to Good Friday, only about half of the previous week’s auction volume will be auctioned at the Leipzig EEX, the overbought market would need time to breathe. In spite of Easter Monday, 12,627,500 emission allowances will be auctioned again in the coming trading week, since in addition to the EU auctions, EUAs will also be offered from German and Polish contingents.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2019-04-05	2019-04-12	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	24.52 EUR	26.49 EUR	+1.97 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	24.60 EUR	26.58 EUR	+1.98 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.23 EUR	0.24 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	70.37 USD	71.79 USD	+1.42 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1214 USD	1.1298 USD	+0.0084 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

From a European perspective, the past year was good for climate protection – German CO2 emissions fell by 4.5% compared to 2017. Not least thanks to the sunny weather and a record of renewable energy generated, 41 million tons of greenhouse gases were saved. Lower livestock numbers (pigs -4%, cattle -3%) also contributed to this. Even the transport sector, which has risen steadily in recent years, has seen a decline of around 5 million tonnes or 2.9%.

All stationary installations in Europe subject to EU emissions trading also emitted 3.8% less CO2e. By contrast, the aviation sector added an inglorious 6.2% to more than 68 million tonnes of CO2. It is not surprising that the airline Ryanair has risen to the top 10 of the biggest climate sinners. Anyone who suspects only coal-fired power plants is obviously visibly wrong. The low budget airline Ryanair emitted just under 10 million tonnes (+ 7%) last year and other airlines such as Lufthansa (+ 9.6%) and Easyjet (+ 11%) followed this negative example.

After the disorderly Brexit has been delayed until the end of this week and even speculated on a second referendum, the CO2 emission allowances in the past week increased sharply. The question of how to proceed from this Friday will influence the carbon pricing accordingly.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2019-03-29	2019-03-29	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	21.44 EUR	24.52 EUR	+3.08 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	21.54 EUR	24.60 EUR	+3.06 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.23 EUR	0.23 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	68.35 USD	70.37 USD	+2.02 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1217 USD	1.1214 USD	-0.0003 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published that energy consumption increased by 2.3% in 2018, raising global CO2 emissions to a catastrophic record. The increase was twice as high as the average of the past decade and caused CO2 emissions of 33.1 billion tonnes in the energy sector, an increase of 1.7% over 2017. In particular, three countries are directly responsible for the sharp increase: China, India and the USA. However, China must be credited for having taken over the majority of the production processes for the rich industrialized countries. These emissions are also indirect emissions from Europe, North America and other affluent areas of our planet.

Since 27.03.2019, the German budget has been used up in terms of CO2 emissions, which is available to us this year in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. By that time, Germany had emitted 198,000,000 tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. In order to reach the 2°C target, the former pioneer in climate protection must therefore significantly reduce emissions, otherwise the budget, which is the maximum available in 2050, is already used up in 2025. Accordingly, the emission of CO2 is expected to become more expensive.

European carbon emission allowances rose slightly last week, but uncertainty surrounding Brexit continues to be a major drag.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2019-03-22	2019-03-29	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	20.52 EUR	21.44 EUR	+0.92 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	20.67 EUR	21.54 EUR	+0.87 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.22 EUR	0.23 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	66.40 USD	68.35 USD	+1.95 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1300 USD	1.1217 USD	-0.0083 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

In Germany, the polarizing protests of #FridaysforFuture seem to be successful at the political level, because the Federal Government has formed a Cabinet Committee under the leadership of Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze, which is to investigate how greenhouse gas emissions in the various sectors of the economy should be reduced. Other Cabinet members include Chancellor Merkel, Minister of Economics Altmaier, Minister of Transport Scheuer and Minister of Finance Scholz.

Head of Cabinet Schulze had already submitted the draft of a German Climate Protection Act five weeks ago, which aims to ensure compliance with the German commitment to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and provides savings targets for all sectors. As expected, this led to criticism from the CDU and CSU coalition partners.

Among other things, the bill aims to achieve significant CO2 savings by energy sector of currently more than 300 million tons by 2017, to 175 million tons by 2030, industry and buildings to save 40 million tons, and agriculture 10 million tons of CO2 or its equivalents in other greenhouse gases such as for example, methane, which accounts for more than 60% of agriculture, or nitrous oxide, which accounts for 80% of this sector.

Federal Transport Minister Scheuer will this week explain how he intends to reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector by 40-42% compared to 1990, after he rejects a general speed limit of 120 or 130 km / h on the highways and still remains many German car buyers of heavy SUVs and other cars with high fossil fuel consumption.

Due to the Polish auction of 4,428,500 EUA held on Wednesday at the EEX in Leipzig, a total of 15,122,500 EUAs will be launched this week. After losing 8% last week, it will be interesting to see how strong the auction demand will be and if prices can hold above the € 20 mark on week-end closing prices.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2019-03-15	2019-03-22	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	22.36 EUR	20.52 EUR	-1.84 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	22.47 EUR	20.67 EUR	-1.80 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.22 EUR	0.22 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	67.03 USD	66.40 USD	-0.63 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1324 USD	1.1300 USD	-0.0024 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Thirty months ago, student Greta Thunberg started striking in front of the Swedish Parliament building on Fridays instead of going to school. With that, she got exactly the attention she would not have got, for example, if she had held up her poster on Saturday afternoon. Last Friday, the resulting children and youth movement #fridaysforfuture reached its peak. More than 1.5 million children and students took to the streets at 2,083 places in 125 countries during their school years, so that politicians implement the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, enabling global warming of no more than 1.5 ° C compared to pre-industrial times.

In our fast-moving time, in which everyone can give thoughtful or even thoughtless comments on all sorts of things that spread via social media also correspondingly fast in their respective filter bubbles, the polarizing topic shows in its full range. With 23,000 scientists behind the movement, new German leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer of the conservative CDU said she would not apologize to her children if they accompanied the school strike. Liberal FDP leader Lindner is also of the opinion that the children belong to the school and the climate policy is to be left exactly to the professionals, which caused the problem according to the opinion of the climate activists only by omission.

In any case, Greta Thunberg and her colleagues have already achieved that the issue of climate protection is discussed socially on a broad basis; that children talk to their parents about it and possibly question their own consumer behavior and, ideally, make it more sustainable. The coming months will show whether the social debate continues and whether Fridays for Future will continue to maintain or expand its gravity. The very fact that children and adolescents are politically involved and socially involved, even with the means of civil disobedience, is definitely welcome.

Emissions trading in Europe, which is currently the most important climate policy tool of choice for reaching the CO2 reduction targets, will reach the mark of 30 euros per ton or EUA in the second half of 2019, according to analysts of various companies. However, over the past trading week, ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit caused the price to drop a whopping 2%, ending the trading week at 22.36 euros in the spot market. This topic will certainly keep the market busy until there is ultimate clarity on the way and timing of the exit.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2019-03-08	2019-03-15	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	22.88 EUR	22.36 EUR	-0.52 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)	23.02 EUR	22.47 EUR	-0.55 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.22 EUR	0.22 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	65.82 USD	67.03 USD	+1.21 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1233 USD	1.1324 USD	+0.0191 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH