Author: advantag

Dear Sir or Madam,

Three topics are currently dominating not only the news but also the sentiment on the markets: the presidential election in the USA, the possibility of an unregulated Brexit and the second wave of corona infections.

While the outcome of the US election on 3 November is unlikely to have a particularly strong impact on European markets, the virus situation in Europe remains a significant burden and politicians are finding it difficult to take the right decisions. There is a real feeling that both the people and the policy makers are torn between concern for life and health on the one hand and the burden on the economy on the other. A golden road is nowhere in sight even at the beginning of the second wave of infection.

European emissions trading was also unable to avoid the pressure of the indices in the past trading week and closed weaker again. Even the 25 euro mark for December contracts did not withstand the pressure and was undercut by a few cents. The announcements from Brussels to significantly increase the emission reduction target by 2030 initially only had a short-term effect in this context, but it will still have a significant impact on price development. The same applies to the start of the fourth trading period and the effect of the market stability reserve, which should by no means be underestimated.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	09/10/2020	16/10/2020	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	25.81 EUR	24.95 EUR	-0.86 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	25.71 EUR	24.84 EUR	-0.87 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.29 EUR	0.28 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	42.82 USD	42.80 USD	-0.02 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1823 USD	1.1717 USD	-0.0106 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Research data from the Earth observation program Copernicus has shown that September 2020 was the warmest September ever recorded globally and, with a plus of 1.3 ° C, is close to the critical level of 1.5 ° C global warming.

Now a study by the University College in London together with the CDP – Carbon Disclosure Project has determined the costs of climate change. Without economic change and a serious reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions, annual costs would amount to more than 4 trillion US dollars by 20170. In 2200, the cost would even exceed $ 30 trillion. Furthermore, a decline of the global gross domestic product of 10% is to be expected, in 2100 the decline could already reach 25%.

If global warming can be kept below 2 ° C by the measures of the Paris Climate Protection Agreement, the annual global costs would be significantly cheaper at 1.5 trillion euros.

September 2020 should therefore be cause for concern from a purely economic point of view.

In the past week of trading, the prices for European pollution rights showed up under the pressure of the high auction volume of almost 22 million certificates and a lack of bullish news. This week, 14.4 million EUA will be auctioned on four trading days, which did not spread optimism either on Friday or at the start of trading today. The prices fell below the EUR 25.50 mark in the first few minutes of trading and, from a purely technical point of view, could break the EUR 25 mark.

This could be a welcome opportunity for buyers who want to stock up on certificates for 2020 already now.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	02/10/2020	09/10/2020	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	27.01 EUR	25.81 EUR	-1.20 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	27.03 EUR	25.71 EUR	-1.32 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.30 EUR	0.29 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	39.14 USD	42.82 USD	+3.68 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1714 USD	1.1823 USD	+0.0109 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

At the end of last week, the financial and commodity markets reacted nervously to the news that US President Trump had tested positive for the corona virus.

In addition, there are worrying numbers regarding the infection rate in many parts of the world, including Europe and the USA, where several New York neighborhoods are already threatened with another lockdown. In particular, this has caused the oil price to collapse again by 4.5% and drop it below the $ 40 mark.

The prices for European CO2 pollution rights also fell in the last week of trading and, after a cautious start to the week, were back below the EUR 26 mark on Friday. However, they recovered significantly over the course of the day to then close above EUR 27.00 and show a plus of 3.3% on a weekly basis compared to the previous week.

In the current trading week, a total of 20.8 million EUA will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX on all five trading days. In addition, there are uncertainties regarding the state of health of the US President Donald Trump, which could mean high volatility for the financial and commodity markets as well as for the energy markets.

The EUA is currently showing an optimistic start to trading and, in terms of chart technology, the signs are rather bullish. In any case, an interesting week is ahead.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	25/09/2020	05/10/2020	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	26.15 EUR	27.01 EUR	+0.86 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	26.17 EUR	27.03 EUR	+0.86 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.30 EUR	0.30 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	41.84 USD	39.14 USD	-2.70 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1631 USD	1.1714 USD	+0.0083 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Oil giant BP has suggested that global demand for oil has already peaked. In addition, three different scenarios for the global energy transition up to 2050 were determined.

In the first scenario, the analysts assume that CO2 emissions from energy consumption will decrease by 70% by 2050, which would reduce global warming to well below 2°C. The second scenario assumes a reduction of 95% by 2050, which is accompanied in particular by political measures; this would reduce global warming to below 1.5°C. Scenario three assumes business as usual, in which CO2 emissions will peak in the mid-2020s and in 2050 would be 10% below those of 2018.

According to the analysts, the prices for CO2 emissions in particular will rise to 250 US dollars per ton in 2050. As a result of political interventions and the shift in social preferences, a decline in the share of hydrocarbons (coal, oil and natural gas) in the global energy system can be seen in all three scenarios. This is offset by a corresponding increase in renewable energies, which is increasingly electrifying the world. Hydrogen and rechargeable batteries will gain significantly in importance as energy carriers and the importance of fossil energy carriers such as coal, natural gas and oil will already decrease visibly in this decade.

Other analysts also see the rise in prices for CO2 emission rights, already in the near future in European emissions trading, the prices of which could therefore double by 2024.

Last week, prices fell slightly after they were quoted on Tuesday at EUR 30.78, just below the all-time high of 30.80. The new trading week also starts weaker and it remains to be seen when the bullish trend will prevail again, especially since almost 21 million EUA are to be auctioned in Leipzig this week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	11/09/2020	18/09/2020	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	28.24 EUR	27.98 EUR	-0.26 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	28.26 EUR	27.99 EUR	-0.027EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.31 EUR	0.31 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	39.72 USD	42.98 USD	+3.91 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1836 USD	1.1837 USD	+0.0001 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH