Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (2018-11-26)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Now the EU has also signed the Brexit treaty with Great Britain, thus paving the way for exit from the EU on 29.03.2019. However, whether the ultimately sensible path for both sides can be brought to an end or whether a disorderly exit will still take place, ultimately depends on the approval of the British House of Representatives and the EU Parliament. Assuming that the EU Parliament agrees, the biggest risk is now in London, as already in the ranks of the advocates and the opponents of Brexit a lot of resistance stirs. These uncertainties should continue to occupy the financial markets until the final security.

On Thursday, the World Weather Organization WMO has reported the frightening fact that the concentration of climate-damaging greenhouse gases is higher than ever and no trend reversal is discernible. According to the WMO, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere rose from 403.3 ppm (particles per million) in 2017 to 405.5, an increase of a whopping 46 percent compared to pre-industrial levels (before 1750). Furthermore, since 1990, radiation propulsion has increased by a significant 41 percent due to long-lived greenhouse gases. The radiation drive is the energy balance of the earth to understand; it includes all forces that either warm or cool our planet. According to the WMO, the most important greenhouse gas CO2 contributed a total of 2/3 of this. Methane, the second most important greenhouse gas, contributed 17 percent, reaching 257 percent of pre-industrial levels. It arises mainly in the context of livestock farming.

Recently, the Earth experienced a similarly high level of CO2 three to five million years ago, as evidenced by ice drilling and analysis of fossils. This resulted in a 3 – 4 °C higher global average temperature, which caused a 10 – 20 meters higher sea level. This heat phase lasted for 3,000 years. However, according to the scientists, the CO2 concentration has never risen so abruptly in Earth’s history as in the past 70 years, caused by the rise of global industry.

Regrettably, very few people use this knowledge as the basis for their daily consumer decisions.

Brent crude oil prices peaked at $ 86.44 a barrel in early October, with the price of fossil fuel plummeting since then, dropping just under 12% last week to $ 59.00. This looked to US President Donald Trump as his merit, which sweetened him the Thanksgiving weekend in Florida. One reason for this is the US stocks, which are at annual high. However, the prices will put pressure on OPEC, which meets in two weeks and has appropriate funding cuts on the agenda.

Despite this development of Oil, the price of carbon emission rights of the European genus in the past week has clearly set in motion and broke the barrier of 20 euros last Wednesday. After a short four-week high at 21.39 euros, the emission rights closed at just over 20 euros.

It will be interesting to see how the auction demand develops in the coming days, as the last auction of emission rights this year takes place on the EEX Leipzig in exactly three weeks, on 17/12/2018.


(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 2018-11-16 2018-11-16 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 19.11 EUR 20.18 EUR +1.07 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future) 19.11 EUR 20.21 EUR +1.10 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.26 EUR 0.27 EUR +0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 66.98 USD 59.00 USD -7.98 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.1414 USD 1.1337 USD -0.0077 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.


With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH