Dear Sir or Madam,
A politically interesting time is coming up this week and in the following days. In the US tomorrow, the “Midterms”, which decides on the occupation of the House of Representatives and a good third of US Senators. Here it remains to be seen whether the Democrats will gain the majority in the House of Representatives, even if the opposition often scored in the middle between the presidential elections.
And it will be interesting to see who in the last remaining German People’s Party, the CDU, will take over the party leadership in the future after the surprisingly announced withdrawal of Chancellor Angela Merkel. The more urgently the will within the party for change comes to light, the more uncertain it is whether its chancellorship will continue until the end of the legislative period. And this is not only relevant at national level, but also from a European point of view.
The oil price has lost 12% to about $ 72 a barrel in the last month. The sanctions against Iran have lost their horror and the OPEC countries are currently promoting record volumes. The US and Russia, with 11.4 million barrels a day, compete in a true race for fossil fuel business. In addition, there should be exceptions for major industrialized countries with regard to Iranian oil.
In addition, NASA forecasts for Central Europe temperatures in November that are 3°C warmer than the long-term average, resulting in lower fossil fuel consumption and thus lower greenhouse gas emissions from the heat supply.
All this has further strengthened the bears and lowered the prices for CO2 emission rights by another € 1.20 per tonne compared to the previous week. The half-year low was even seen at $ 15.10 last Thursday, after which the price was significantly stronger on Friday with a gain of two euros.
| (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC) | |||
| Instrument | 2018-10-26 | 2018-11-02 | Change |
| EUA (Spotmarket) | 18.28 EUR | 17.08 EUR | -1.20 EUR |
| EUA (December-2018-Future) | 18.28 EUR | 17.08 EUR | -1.20 EUR |
| CER (Spotmarket) | 0.28 EUR | 0.28 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) | 77.41 USD | 72.75 USD | -4.66 USD |
| EURO (Currency, Forex) | 1.1401 USD | 1.1387 USD | -0.0014 USD |
(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.
With kind regards,
Advantag Services GmbH