Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (26/06/2023)

Dear Madam or Sir,

Professor Ottmar Edenhofer, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and also Director of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), told the magazine “Spiegel” that prices for emissions in the transport and building sectors would have to be drastically increased in order to achieve the important climate protection sector targets.

The current price for a carbon emission allowance in national German emissions trading system is EUR 30.00 per ton this year and will rise to EUR 45.00 in 2024. The Berlin MCC has now determined that the control effect of CO2 pricing requires significantly higher prices in order to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels in the transport and building sector.

The MCC economists have now calculated a price of EUR 275.00 per ton of CO2 in 2030 and a further increase to EUR 340.00 by 2035 to make climate-damaging energy sources obsolete. For an average household in Germany, these would be additional costs of around EUR 13,400 by 2045, and even EUR 23,100 for a single-family home with oil heating.

In addition, Edenhofer recommends using part of the income as aid linked to the CO2 emissions per square meter or the type of heating. Households with gas boilers could get back a total of 6,360 euros from emissions trading by 2045, with oil heating it would be 9,540 euros.

The new auction calendar with the adjusted auction volumes for the rest of the year was published at EEX last week. The European Commission uses the additional volume to finance measures within the framework of REPowerEU.

In July, the usual auction volumes at EU auctions will rise from 2,409,000 EUAs per auction to 2,658,000. During the August summer break, the EU will then auction 1,329,000 EUAs.

In the period from September to December, 3,035,000 EUAs will then be offered in the regular EU auctions, 2,147,000 for Germany (currently 1,939,500 weekly) and 3,347,500 EUA every two weeks for Poland (previously 2,676,000).

The price of the EUAs took this as an opportunity to correct after the significant increases of the two previous weeks and fell 4.8% on a weekly closing basis after the price had previously risen to EUR 96.00 (EUA Dec-2023) last Tuesday.

In the last week of June, a total of 9,167,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX due to the two-week auction of Polish certificates, before a total of 12,589,500 EUAs will be offered in the coming week due to the new auction calendar and the Polish auction.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
EUA (Spot-Market)91.21 EUR86.81 EUR-4.40 EUR 
EUA (December-2023-Future)92.35 EUR87.88 EUR-4.47 EUR 
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)1.52 USD1.64 USD+0.12 USD 
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)1.11 USD1.04 USD-0.07 USD 
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)30.00 EUR30.00 EUR+0.00 EUR 
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)76.42 USD74.21 USD-2.21 USD 
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.0941 USD1.0893 USD-0.0048 USD 

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

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With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH