Oil giant BP has suggested that global demand for oil has already peaked. In addition, three different scenarios for the global energy transition up to 2050 were determined.
In the first scenario, the analysts assume that CO2 emissions from energy consumption will decrease by 70% by 2050, which would reduce global warming to well below 2°C. The second scenario assumes a reduction of 95% by 2050, which is accompanied in particular by political measures; this would reduce global warming to below 1.5°C. Scenario three assumes business as usual, in which CO2 emissions will peak in the mid-2020s and in 2050 would be 10% below those of 2018.
According to the analysts, the prices for CO2 emissions in particular will rise to 250 US dollars per ton in 2050. As a result of political interventions and the shift in social preferences, a decline in the share of hydrocarbons (coal, oil and natural gas) in the global energy system can be seen in all three scenarios. This is offset by a corresponding increase in renewable energies, which is increasingly electrifying the world. Hydrogen and rechargeable batteries will gain significantly in importance as energy carriers and the importance of fossil energy carriers such as coal, natural gas and oil will already decrease visibly in this decade.
Other analysts also see the rise in prices for CO2 emission rights, already in the near future in European emissions trading, the prices of which could therefore double by 2024.
Last week, prices fell slightly after they were quoted on Tuesday at EUR 30.78, just below the all-time high of 30.80. The new trading week also starts weaker and it remains to be seen when the bullish trend will prevail again, especially since almost 21 million EUA are to be auctioned in Leipzig this week.
| (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC) | |||
| Instrument | 11/09/2020 | 18/09/2020 | Change |
| EUA (Spot-Market) | 28.24 EUR | 27.98 EUR | -0.26 EUR |
| EUA (December-2020-Future) | 28.26 EUR | 27.99 EUR | -0.027EUR |
| CER (Spot-Market) | 0.31 EUR | 0.31 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) | 39.72 USD | 42.98 USD | +3.91 USD |
| EURO (Currency, Forex) | 1.1836 USD | 1.1837 USD | +0.0001 USD |
(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
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