Month: June 2017

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

The already foreseeable further price decline on the oil market has pushed the price in the past week actually under the mark of 45 USD and thus to a seven-month low.

This alone would have been reason enough to pull the carbon price into the depths. In addition, a total of 22.1 million fresh certificates came on the market in the five auctions on the EEX. These achieved very fluctuating results, partly with 15 cent price difference from one day to the other. Overall, the average auction result, at around EUR 4.90, fell significantly short of the results of the past few weeks.

Despite this, the price of the European pollution rights remained surprisingly stable and closed only 3 cents weaker during the week’s comparison. Since, however, there are not many reasons at the moment of such a stable price level, the buyers mentality seems to be more medium-to-long-term and a price around the five-euro mark appears attractive enough to cover up further.

And then a short look at the weather – one enjoy it, the other is complaining, but the weather has never been cared for. The fact is that the WMO (the United Nations main body responsible for the interaction of meteorology with the earth’s atmosphere, the oceans and the climate) is currently warning about a global heat wave. The devastating forest fires in Portugal, heat records in Spain and a top value of 54 degrees Celsius in Pakistan are eloquent witnesses alone in June. The first five months of this year were, on average, the second warmest since the beginning of the records – warmer it was only 2016.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2017-06-23	2017-06-16	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	4.86 EUR	4.89 EUR	-0.03 EUR
EUA (December-2017-Future)	4.87 EUR	4.90 EUR	-0.03 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.21 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	45.64 USD	47.33 USD	-1.69 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1194 USD	1.1198 USD	-0.0004 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask have usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. These market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

The decline in oil prices continued unabated in the past week. And again, news coming from the United States weighed on the price. This is due not only to the already known factors, namely the high inventories and the increasing production of fracking oil on. As is known recently, over the past 22 weeks, the number of boreholes for classical crude oil has also steadily increased and has currently reached the highest level since more than two years. Because effective countermeasures are not realistic, it just seems to be a matter of time when the 45-dollar mark will be again broken.

The CO2 market also recorded more easily in the wake of the oil price in the last week, but did not break through the previously stable support at EUR 4.87. The very low auctioning volume last week did not seem to have any effect on the market, especially as this week with an additional auction of Polish certificates on Wednesday the calendar is again well filled. In terms of the chart, a showdown between bulls and bears is currently at hand, as the downward trend of the past few weeks is slowly approaching the support line.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2017-06-16	2017-06-09	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	4.89 EUR	5.04 EUR	-0.15 EUR
EUA (December-2017-Future)	4.90 EUR	5.04 EUR	-0.14 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.22 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	47.33 USD	48.17 USD	-0.84 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1198 USD	1.1196 USD	+0.0002 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask have usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. These market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

The two highly anticipated elections in the UK and France could not have shown more different results. While Theresa May, after David Cameron’s Brexit referendum, plunged the country a second time into chaos, the French President Macron has succeeded in mobilizing a large majority for his government work. However, it is difficult to predict how these two elections will affect Europe in the future.

The traders in the carbon market reacted reserved and unimpressed. The price for the European Pollution Right has therefore moved sideward in a range between EUR 4.90 and EUR 5.20 for the third week in a row. This week there are no auctions on the EEX on Thursday and Friday, which could give the course a bit of a hold.

After a serious recovery in the oil market at the beginning of May, prices actually have fallen to their lowest level this year. Apparently, the US Department of Defense Wednesday’s stock report, which showed a sharp increase in crude oil inventories, continues to affect the behavior of the traders. These apparently reveal new doubts about the effectiveness of the OPEC production cuts and take delicate price increases immediately as sales signals.

Notable was the unusually high-profile meeting between the Governor of California, Jerry Brown and China’s state and party leader Xi Jinping last week. After the US President’s cancellation to the Paris Climate Protection Agreement, the two politicians agreed to cooperate closely with renewable energies and environmentally friendly technologies as part of their own climate treaty. The initiative of the most populous US federal state is by no means an exotic one. In the meantime, an initiative against the withdrawal from the world climate agreement has been formed in the USA. Under the motto “We are still in”, nine federal states as well as numerous cities, universities and hundreds of companies have undertaken to implement the aims of Paris despite the cancellation of their president.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2017-06-09	2017-06-05	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	5.04 EUR	5.17 EUR	-0.13 EUR
EUA (December-2017-Future)	5.04 EUR	5.17 EUR	-0.13 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.22 EUR	0.21 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	48.17 USD	49.42 USD	-1.25 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1196 USD	1.1257 USD	+0.0061 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask have usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. These market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

Once again, the carbon market news have to deal with Donald Trump. The US President announced last Thursday that the world’s biggest economy will leave the Paris Climate Protection Agreement. Thus, Trump has delivered on his electoral promise to the strongholds of coal production like Pennsylvania or West Virginia. Therefore, when signing the decree, he sent some miners symbolically back to work. But once again, his already infamous tunnel vision does not allow him to recognize the meaninglessness of this project. The decline in coal production in the USA is by no means due to the Paris climate protection agreement, but to purely market-based mechanisms. Coal consumption has fallen to its lowest level in the past 40 years, mainly due to cheaper alternatives such as natural gas and the use of energy-saving technologies. These facts – not “fake news” – will soon be noticed by then extremely disappointed miners.

However, another issue of far greater importance for trade in European pollution rights was the question, how other major industrial nations would react on the withdrawal of the US from the climate treaty? Would they follow the example, thereby undermining the historic agreement? The slightly unsettled CO2 market reacted logically with price drops and recorded a short-term low of 4.99 EUR on Friday in early trading.

However, the prompt unanimous, international response caused the traders to breathe a sigh of relief. Germany, France, Italy, and even China, or the United Kingdom, which is closely allied to the United States, unequivocally criticized Trumps’ decision and announced an uncompromising adherence to the agreed climate goals. Now the strong man in the White House stood once more like a naive child holding his hands in front of his eyes, believing that it was not seen anymore.

Only the oil price reacted significantly to the decision from Washington. In the opinion of commodity experts, there is an expectation on the market that oil production in the USA will rise further. As a result, the price on Friday fell below the important 50 dollar mark.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2017-06-05	2017-05-26	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	5.17 EUR	5.19 EUR	-0.02 EUR
EUA (December-2017-Future)	5.17 EUR	5.19 EUR	-0.02 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.21 EUR	0.22 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	49.42 USD	52.47 USD	-3.05 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1257 USD	1.1182 USD	+0.0075 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask have usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. These market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

 

With kind regards,

 

Advantag Services GmbH